انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.58138 unavailable Why hazards science? 22 12 2015 2 4 371 375 25 07 2016 25 07 2016 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_58138.html

unavailable

 [1].       شریفی کیا، محمد؛ نعمت مال، امیری؛ شایان، سیاوش (1392). سنجش میزان آسیب‌پذیری بافت‌های شهری در برابر مخاطرۀ فرونشست، مجلۀ جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، ش 5. [2].              محمدی، حسین (1390). مخاطرات جوی، تهران: انتشارات دانشگاه تهران. [3].  Aysan,Y; Davis,I (1992)Disasters and the Small Dwelling,James & James publisher(science publisher) 30–35. [4].  Birkmann, J;Wisner,B; (2006); Measuring un-immeasurable:The challenge of Vunerability; UNU Istitute for Environment and Human Security (UNUEHS). [5].  Blaikie, P; Cannon, T; Davis, I; & Wisner, B; (1994) At risk. Natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters. London: Routledge [6].  Cannon, T; Twigg, J; & Rowell, J; (2003) Social Vulnerability, Sustainable Livelihoods and Disasters. Report to DFID Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance Department (CHAD) and Sustainable Livelihood Support Office. [7].  Chambers, R; (1989) Vulnerability, coping and policy, Institute of Development Studies Bulletin, 20, 1–7. [8].  Comfort, L; Wisner, B; Cutter, S; Pulwarty, R; Hewitt, K; Oliver-Smith, A., Wiener, J; Fordham, M;, Peacock, W. & Krimgold, F; (1999) Reframing disaster policy: the global evolution of vulnerable communities. Environmental Hazards, 1, 39–44. [9].  Cross, J A; (2001) Megacities and small towns: different perspectives on hazard vulnerability. Environmental Hazards 3, 63–80 [10].            Fuchs,S; (2012) Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and riskanalysis: current approaches and future challenges. Natural Hazards [11].            Hewitt, K; (1997) Regions of risk: A geographical introduction to disasters (Harlow: Addison Wesley Longman Limited). [12].            Smith,K; (2001) Environmental hazard: Assessing risk and reducing disaster, Fourth edition, Rutledge. [13].            Varazanashvili,O;Tsereteli,N; Amiranashvili, A; (2012) Vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk assessment for Georgia. Nat Hazards 64:2021–2056, [14].            Villa, F;, & McLeod, H; (2002) Environmental Vulnerability Indicators for Environmental Planning and Decision-Making: Guidelines and Applications. Environmental Management 29 (3), 335–348. [15].            Williams, L; & Kaputska, L; (2000) Ecosystem vulnerability: A Complex interface with technical components. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 19 (4), 1055–1058.  _||_
انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.58265 Applied Article Recognition, Classification and synoptical Analysis of Heat waves decreasing human hazards In North West of Iran jahanbakhsh asl saeed Professor Climatology – University Tabriz- Tabriz – Iran ghavidel fatemeh Master Climatology – University Tabriz – Iran ashjaei mohammad Master Meteorological – Meteorological Organization Tabriz – Tabriz – Iran 22 12 2015 2 4 377 391 10 06 2016 17 07 2016 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_58265.html

The heat waves are the main manifestations of contemporary world climate change, which in terms of the frequency of occurrence and financial and human loss caused by them are of great importance. The aim of this study was to identify, classify and analyze heat waves synoptic occurred in the Northwest of Iran, to verify the effective synoptic system in the occurrence of heat waves. In this study, the heat index introduced by the National Center for the United States weather data (NCDC) was used. For this purpose, long term statistics of 23 years old maximum daily temperature and relative humidity on a daily basis for five hottest months of the year (May to September) of Iran’s Northwest synoptic stations were collected from National Meteorological Organization and the statistical characteristics of heat waves and synoptic and occurrence of heat waves, were evaluated according this the thermal index and classified into five levels of intensity. The analysis of synoptic map showed also that the dominant patterns in the study regions next to a tropical high pressure, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The maps of moisture flux also showed a cyclone movement on the Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, have the most impact on the moisture flux of northwest area of Iran. there is moisture in the event of heat waves on north west area that exacerbate the risks of heat waves, in terms of human risk.       

 synoptic analysis heat waves North West of Iran decreasing human hazardss 1[. اسمعیل‌نژاد، مرتضی (1392). شناسایی رفتار مکانی امواج گرمایی سیستان و بلوچستان با برنامه Hot Spot در محیط GIS.پوسترنخستین کنفرانس ملی آب‌وهواشناسی ایران، اردیبهشت 1392. ]2[. براتی، غلامرضا؛ موسوی، سید شفیع، (1384). جا به جایی مکانی موج‌های زمستانی گرما در ایران. مجلۀ جغرافیا و توسعه، سال سوم، شمارۀ 5: 52-41. ]3[. حدادی، حسین (1388). تحلیل زمانی و مکانی امواج گرما در ایران. پایان‌نامۀ کارشناسی ارشد اقلیم‌شناسی در برنامه‌ریزی محیطی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس. ]4[. دارند، محمد (1393). شناسایی و تحلیل زمانی – مکانی امواج گرمایی ایران‌زمین. جغرافیا و توسعه، شمارۀ 35، تابستان 1393: 180- 167. ]5[. سلیقه، محمد (1382). مدل­سازی اثرهای آب‌وهوایی کم­فشارهای حرارتی در منطقۀ جنب حاره. تحقیقات جغرافیایی، شمارۀ 18: 90-74. ]6[. علیزاده، امین، (1391). اصول هیدرولوژی کاربردی. انتشارات دانشگاه امام رضای مشهد، ویرایش ششم، چاپ 34. ]7[. علیائی، سیدحسن (1382). مطالعه امواج گرمایی شدید در جنوب ایران. مجموعه گزارشات معاونت پژوهشی سازمان هواشناسی کشور: 156-45. ]8[. قویدل رحیمی، یوسف (1390). شناسایی، طبقه‌بندی و تحلیل سینوپتیک موج ابرگرم تابستان 1389 در ایران. مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق خشک، سال اول، شمارۀ 3، بهار 1390: 100- 85. ]9[. کاویانی، محمدرضا؛ علیجانی، بهلول (1390). مبانی آب‌وهواشناسی. چاپ سیزدهم، تهران: انتشارات سمت. ]10[. محمدیاریان، محترم؛ مفیدی، عباس؛ حسین زاده، سیدرضا (1392). پهنه‌بندی مخاطرات دمایی در شمال شرق ایران. نخستین کنفرانس ملی آب‌وهواشناسی ایران. دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، کرمان: 31 اردیبهشت و 1 خرداد 1392. ]11[. مجرد، فیروز؛ معصوم‌پور، جعفر؛ رستمی، طیبه (1394). تحلیل آماری – همدیدی امواج گرمایی بالای 40 درجۀ سلسیوس در غرب ایران. جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، شمارۀ 13، بهار 94: 57 – 41. ]12[. یزدان‌پناه، حجت­‌الله؛ مینو، نساء؛ احمدیان، سپندار؛ فدایی، سید پیام (1391). بررسی امواج گرمایی حادث‌شده در کرمانشاه. همایش ملی شهرهای مرزی و امنیت، چالش‌ها و رهیافت­ها، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان،30 و 31 فروردین 1391.  [13]. Amengual;A,Homar;V, Romero;R, Brooks; H.E, Ramis;C, Gordaliza;M, Alonso;S (2014). Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe. Global and Planetary Change, Vol 119, August 2014, pp, 71–84, 0921-8181.  [14]. Beniston, Martin; Stephenson, David B; Christensen, Ole B; Ferro, A.T; Frei, christoph; Goyette, stephane; Halsnaes,Kirsten; Holt, Tom; jyiha,kirsti; koffi, Brigitty; palutikof,jean; Scholl, Rigina; Semmler, Tido; Woth, Katja, (2007). Future extreme events in European climate. an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatechange No,81,pp,71- 95, DOI 10.1007/s 10584-006-9226-z.  [15]. Chen, Fan; Konrad II, Charles E, (2006). A Synoptic climatology of summertime heat and humidity in the Piedmont region of North Carolina. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Volume. 45, pp, 674- 685. [16]. El Morjani, Zine El Abidine; Idbraim, Soufiane (2011). Heat wave hazard modelling, Methodology document for the WHO e-atlas of disaster risk. Volume 1, Exposure to natural hazards Version 2.0 Taroudant poly-disciplinary faculty of the Ibn Zohr University of Agadir, Morocco January 2011,No. 1, pp,1-86.  [17]. Feudale, L; Shukla, J; (2011). Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study، Climate Dynamics، in press، DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0.   [18]. Johnson, Daniel. P;Webber, J. Jeremy; Urs, Kavya; Beerval, Ravichandra;Vijay, Lulla ;stanforth, Austin C (2013);Spatiotemporal variations in heat relate health risk in three Midwestern US cities between1990and2010. DOI:10.1080/10106049.2013.799718,  23 Apr 2013. [19]. Kotlyakov,V، M; Komarova, A، I, (2007), Elsevier's Dictionary of Geography. Elsevier, ISBN:9780080488783 0080488781.  [20]. Koppe, Christina; Kovats, Sari;Jendritzky, Gerd and Mennen (2004).HealthandGlobalEnvironmentalChangeBettina.publication, WHO, Regional office for Europe scherfigsvej 8,DK 2004 Copenhagen, Denmark’s,No. 6, pp, 592 – 599.  [21]. Martin vide, Javier; Gomez,Lidia (1998). Regionalization of peninsular Spain based on the length o dry spells. International Journal of climatol, No 19,pp, 537-555, DoI: 0899-8418/99/050537.       [22]. Robine, Jean; Marie,SiuLan K. Cheung; Sophie Le Roy, Herman Van Oyen, Clare Griffiths, Jean-Pierre Michel, François Herrmann, Richard (2008). Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003.ComptesRendusBiologies, Volume 331,No.2, pp,171–178, DoI:10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001. [23]. Twardosz, Robert; Kossowska-Cezak, Urszula (2013). Exceptionally Hot Summers in Central and Eastern Europe (1951–2010). Theor. Appl. Climatol, Volume, 112, No: 3,pp, 617–628, DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-0757-0.  [24]. Unkašević, Miroslava; Tošić, Ivana (2009). An analysis of heatwaves in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change، Volum,65,pp, 17–26,No.1, DoI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.009.
انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.58266 Applied Article Evaluation of Society’ Resiliency Approach against Natural Hazards (Case Study: Damavand District) Evaluation of Society’ Resiliency Approach against Natural Hazards Salmani Mohamad Associate Professor, Geography Department, Tehran University Badri Seid Ali Associate Professor, Geography Department, Tehran University Motavaf Sharif Assistant Professor, Rebuilding Research Group, Shahid Beheshti University Kazemi Sani Ataallah Nasrin PhD Candidate in Geography, Tehran University 22 12 2015 2 4 393 409 15 04 2016 15 07 2016 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_58266.html

In recent years, the most researches in the field of hazards have been changed their paradigm from losses and damages reduce model to a more comprehensive society resilience model. Accordingly, the views and theories of disaster management and sustainable development are about to make resiliency societies against natural hazards. Resilience is system capacity and their ability to change tolerance, disruption and stability of current relationships between individuals or variables. This study evaluates Damavand's resilience approach in dealing with natural hazards by considering mentioned. The most important of resiliency approaches have been divided into four categories; the first one includes proactive approach, reactive, consistent and wide approach. The second one consist three resiliency approaches as a preparation, performance and Ineffectual resiliency. The third one is divided into two approaches are named specific and general resiliency. Finally, the fourth group includes resilience approaches and global equilibrium and resilience and multiple equilibria. Based on these approaches, this study attempted to examine and analysis resilience approach in case study by survey and questionnaire in study area. The questionnaires were filled randomly and data analyzed by statistical methods. In order to determine the resiliency approach in each group, Data were analyzed separately for each group. The results indicates that resilience approach of this area in the first group is proactive; in the second one is resilience as performance; in third group is specific resiliency and finally fourth one is resiliency approach and global equilibrium.  

 resiliency proactive Performance specific global equilibrium ]1[. خوش‌رفتار، رضا (1389). ژئومورفولوژی مخاطرات طبیعی، فصلنامۀ رشد جغرافیا؛ دوره 25، شمارۀ 2: 24- 14 ]2[. رفیعیان، مجتبی؛ رضایی، محمدرضا؛ عسگری، علی؛ پرهیزکار، اکبر؛ شایان، سیاوش (1390). تبیین مفهومی تاب‌آوری و شاخص‌سازی آن در مدیریت سوانح اجتماع‌محور، فصلنامۀ مدرس علوم انسانی- برنامه‌ریزی و آمایش فضا، دورۀ پانزدهم، شمارۀ 4: 41- 19. ]3[. رمضان‌زاده لسبویی، مهدی (1392). ساختارهای اجتماعی- اقتصادی تاب‌آوری ساکنین نواحی روستایی در برابر بلایای طبیعی با تأکید بر سیلاب (حوضه چشمه کلیه تنکابن و سردآبرود کلاردشت)، رسالۀ دکتری جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران. ]4[. رمضان‌زاده، مهدی؛ عسگری، علی؛ بدری، سید علی؛ سلمانی، محمد؛ قدیری معصوم، مجتبی (1391). سنجش تاب‌آوری روستاهای مناطق نمونۀ گردشگری، مجلۀ برنامه‌ریزی و توسعۀ گردشگری، سال اول، شمارۀ 3: 154- 131. ]5[. عینالی، جمشید؛ فراهانی، حسین؛ جعفری، نسرین (1393). ارزیابی نقش سرمایه اجتماعی در کاهش اثرات سانحۀ زلزله در دهستان سجاسرود- شهرستان خدابنده، نشریۀ تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، سال چهاردهم، شمارۀ 32: 115- 93. [6]. Adger, W. (2000). Social and Ecological Resilience: Are They Related? Progress in Human Geography, 24 (3), 347- 364, DIO: http://phg.sagepub.com/content/24/3/347. [7]. ASCE Policy Statement 518 (2006). Available at: http://www.asce.org/. [8]. Bene, C., Wood, R. G., Newsham, A., Davies, M. (2012). Resilience: New Utopia or New Tyranny? Reslection about the Potentials and limits of the Concept of Resilience in Relation to Vulnerability Reduction Programmes. IDS Working Papers, 2012 (405), 1-61. [9]. Biondini, F., Camnasion, E., Titi, A. (2015). Seismic Resilience of Concrete Sturctures under Corrosion, Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 44, 14, 2445- 2466, DIO: http://10.1002/eqe.2591. [10]. Bruneau, M., Chang, S., Eguchi, R., Lee, G., O’Rourke, T., Reinhorn, A., Reinhorn, A. M., Shinozuka, M., Tierney, K., Wallace, W. A., Winterfedt, D. (2003). A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities, Earthquake Spectra, 19, 733- 752, DIO: http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.1623497. [11]. Derissen, S., Quaas, M., Baumgartner, S. (2009). The relationship between Resilience and Sustainable Development of Ecological- Economic Systems, University of Luneburg Working Paper in Economics. [12]. Dovers, Stephen R., John W. Handmer (1992). Uncertainty, Sustainability and Change, Global Environmental Change, 2, 4, 262–76, DIO:10.1016/0959-3780(92)90044-8. [13]. Dunford, M., Li, L. (2011). Earthquake reconstruction in Wenchuan: assessing the state overall plan and addressing the forgotten phase, Applied Geography, 31, 3, 998-1009, DIO:10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.01.001. [14]. Dyke, S. Gill, R. Davies, F. Betorz, Y. Andalsvik, J. Cackler, W. Dos Santos, K. Dunlop, I. Ferreira, F. Kebe, E. Lamboglia, Y. Matsubara, V. Nikolaidis, S. Ostoja-Starzewski, M. Sakita, N. Verstappen (2011). Dream project: Applications of earth observations to disaster risk management, Acta Astronautia, 68, 1-2, 301- 315, DIO:10.1016/j.actaastro.2010.06.018. [15]. Foster, Kathryn A. )2007). A Case Study Approach to Understanding Regional Resilience, Institute of Urban & Regional Development, Available at: http://www. iurd.berkeley.edu/publications/wp/2007-08.pdf. [16]. Gilbert, SW. (2010). Disaster Resilience: A Guide to the Literature, NIST Special Publication 1117, Office of Applied Economics, Engineering Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, Available at: docs.lib.noaa.gov/noaa_documents/NOAA_related_docs/NIST/special_publication/sp_1117.pdf [17]. Godschalk, D. R. (2003). Urban hazard Mitigation: Creating Resilient Cities, Natural Hazards Review, 4, 3, 136- 143, DIO: 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988. [18]. Gross, J. S. (2008). Sustainability versus Resilience: What is the Global Urban Future and can we Plan for Change? A Discussion Paper Prepared for the Comparative Urban Studies Project Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Fetzer Institute. Available at: www.wilsoncenter.org. [19]. Gunderson, L. (2000). Ecological Resilience – In Theory and Application, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 31, 425–439, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.31.1.425. [20]. Haddadi, P., Besharat, M. A. (2010). Resilience, Vulnerability and Mental Health, Procedia (Social and Behavioral Sciences), 5, 639 - 642, DIO: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2010.07.157. [21]. Holling, C. S. (1973). Resilience and Stabilty of Ecological Systems, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1- 23, DOI: 10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245. [22]. McAslan, A. (2010). The Concept of Resilience, understanding its Origins, Meaning and Utility, Torrens Resilience Institute: Adelaide, Australia. [23]. Naghdi, K., Mansourian, A., Valadanzoej, M. J., Saadatseresht, M. (2008). Evacuation Planning in Earthquake Disasters, Using RS & GIS, The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 24, 1671- 1676, Available at: http://www.isprs.org/proceedings/XXXVII/congress/4_pdf/292.pdf. [24]. National Research Council (2012). Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, Available at: http://www.nap.edu. [25]. Norris, F. H., Stevens, S. P., Pfefferbaum, B., Wyche, K. F., Pfefferbaum, R. L. (2008). Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness, Am J Community Psychol, 41, 127- 150, DIO: 10.1007/s10464-007-9156-6. [26]. Pisano, U. (2012). Resilience and Sustainable Development: Theory of Resilience, Systems Thinking and Adaptive Governance, European Sustainable development Network (ENSD), Available at: http://www.sd-network.eu/?k=quarterly%20reports&report_id=26. [27]. Presidential Policy Directive (2013). Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience, PPD-21, Released February 12, Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/12/presidential-policy-directive-critical-infrastructure-security-and-resil. [28]. Rahmawati, D., Supriharjo, R., Setiawan, R. P., Pradinie, K. (2014). Community Participation in Heritage Tourism for Gresik Resilience, Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences, 135, 142- 146, DIO: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.07.338. [29]. Schmidt, D. H., Garland, K. A (2012). Bone Dry in Texas: Resilience to Drought on the Upper Texas Gulf Coast, Journal of Planning Literature, 27, 4, 434 - 445, DIO: http://100.1177/088541221245013. [30]. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (2007). Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, Available at: http://www.unisdr.org/files/1037 hyogoframeworkforactionenglish.pdf. [31]. Walker, B, Holling CS, Carpenter SR, Kinzig A. (2004). Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social–Ecological Systems, Ecology and Society, 9, 2, ART. 5, Available at: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5/. [32]. Walker, B., Salt, D. (2006(. Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World. Washington, DC, Island Press, Available at: http://islandpress.org. [33]. Wardekker, J. A., Jong, A., Knoop, J. M & Sluijs, J. P. (2010). Operationalising a Resilience Approch to Adapting an Urban Delta to Uncertaing Climate Changes, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77, 987 - 998, DIO: 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.11.005.
انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.58267 Applied Article Factors Influencing Farmers’ Willingness in order to Mitigate Greenhouse Gases in Bavi Township Forouzani Masoumeh Assistant Professor Department of Agriculture Extension and Education, Ramin Agriculture and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan Zobeidi Tahereh Graduated Student, Department of Agriculture Extension and Education, Ramin Agriculture and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan. 22 12 2015 2 4 411 422 01 03 2016 17 07 2016 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_58267.html

Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases. Therefore, in the agricultural sector, mitigation strategies to reducing the climate change are necessary. Where, mitigating climate change in agriculture is depends to willingness of farmers. Therefore, identify the influencing factors on willingness of farmers is important. The purpose of this study was to investigate of factors influencing on farmers’ willingness in order to mitigation greenhouse gases. This research in terms of purpose is an applied research and in terms of methodology is survey research.The statistical population of this research consisted of 3000 farmers of Bavi Township in khuzestan Province. A sample of 350 persons was selected through random sampling method. The survey instrument was a questionnaire which its validity confirmed by experts. The reliability of the questionnaire using Cronbach's alpha coefficient (α= 0/70-0/90) has been approved. The results showed, the variables of, knowledge about effects, media trust, knowledge about causes of climate change and social trust could predict 28 percent of variations in farmers’ willingness to mitigating climate change. Finally, based on the results of research, policy implications presented.    

 Behavioral Intention climate change Willingness to Mitigation Bavi Township 1]. Adger, W.N., S. Agrawala, M.M.Q. Mirza, C. Conde, K. O’Brien, J. Pulhin, R. Pulwarty, B.Smitand K.Takahashi, 2007: Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 717-743. [2]. Aitken, C., Chapman, R., & McClure, J. (2011). Climate change, powerlessness and the commons dilemma: Assessing New Zealanders’ preparedness to act. Global Environmental Change, 21(2), 752-760. [3]. Amedie, F. A. (2013). Impacts of Climate Change on Plant Growth, Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity, and Potential Adaptation Measure (Doctoral dissertation, Master thesis). [4]. Arbuckle Jr, J. G., Morton, L. W., & Hobbs, J. (2013b). Farmer beliefs and concerns about climate change and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation: Evidence from Iowa. Climatic Change, 118(3-4), 551-563. [5]. Arbuckle Jr, J. G., Prokopy, L. S., Haigh, T., Hobbs, J., Knoot, T., Knutson, C. ... & Widhalm, M. (2013a). Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among farmers in the Midwestern United States. Climatic change, 117(4), 943-950. [6]. Arbuckle, J. G., Morton, L. W., & Hobbs, J. (2013c). Understanding farmer perspectives on climate change adaptation and mitigation: The roles of trust in sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, and perceived risk. Environment and Behavior, 0013916513503832. [7]. Bamberg, S., & Möser, G. (2007). Twenty years after Hines, Hungerford, and Tomera: A new meta-analysis of psycho-social determinants of pro-environmental behaviour. Journal of environmental psychology, 27(1), 14-25. [8]. Bord, R. J., O’Connor, R. E., & Fisher, A. (2000). In what sense does the public need to understand global climate change. Public Understanding of Science, 9, 205-218. [9]. Boyes, E., Skamp, K., & Stanisstreet, M. (2009). Australian secondary students’ views about global warming: Beliefs about actions, and willingness to act. Research in Science Education, 39(5), 661-680. [10]. Campos, M., McCall, M. K., & González-Puente, M. (2014). Land-users’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change in Mexico and Spain: commonalities across cultural and geographical contexts. Regional environmental change, 14(2), 811-823. [11].Clayton, S., & Myers, G. (2009). Conservation psychology: Understanding and promoting human care for nature. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Blackwell. [12]. Drummond, A., & Palmer, M. A. (2014). Heart rate change and attitudes to global warming: A conceptual replication of the visceral fit mechanism. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 38, 10-16. [13]. Evans, L., Milfont, T. L., & Lawrence, J. (2014). Considering local adaptation increases willingness to mitigate. Global Environmental Change, 25, 69-75. [14]. Ferguson, M. A., & Branscombe, N. R. (2010). Collective guilt mediates the effect of beliefs about global warming on willingness to engage in mitigation behavior. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 30(2), 135-142. [15]. Fleming, A., & Vanclay, F. (2011). Farmer responses to climate change and sustainable agriculture. In Sustainable Agriculture Volume 2 (pp. 283-293). Springer Netherlands. [16]. Gifford, R., Kormos, C., & McIntyre, A. (2011). Behavioral dimensions of climate change: drivers, responses, barriers, and interventions. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(6), 801-827. [17]. Hmielowski, J. D., Feldman, L., Myers, T. A., Leiserowitz, A., & Maibach,  E. (2013). An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming. Public Understanding of Science, 0963662513480091. [18]. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [19]. Hyland, J. J., Jones, D. L., Parkhill, K. A., Barnes, A. P., & Williams, A. P. (2015). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change: identifying types. Agriculture and Human Values, 1-17. [20]. Janzen, H. H. (2011). What place for livestock on a re-greening earth?. Animal Feed Science and Technology, 166, 783-796. [21]. Kebread, E., Clark, K., Wagner-Riddle, C., France, J., 2006. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Canadian Animal agriculture: a review. Can. J. Anim. Sci. 86, 135–158. [22]. Kilinc, A., Eroglu, B., Boyes, E., & Stanisstreet, M. (2013). Could organisms and ecosystems be used as motivators for behaviour to reduce global warming? The views of school students. International Research in Geographical and Environmental Education, 22(3), 191-208. [23]. Lal, R., Delgado, J. A., Groffman, P. M., Millar, N., Dell, C., & Rotz, A. (2011). Management to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 66(4), 276-285. [24]. Leiserowitz, A. A. (2003). Global warming in the American mind: the roles of affect, imagery, and worldviews in risk perception, policy preferences and behavior (Doctoral dissertation, University of Oregon). [25] Lorenzoni I, Leiserowitz A, DeFranca D, Poortinga W, Pidgeon NF (2006) Cross-national comparisons of image associations with “global warming” and “climate change” among laypeople in the United States of America and Great Britain. J Risk Res 9(3):265–281. [26]. Lorenzoni, I., Nicholson-Cole, S., & Whitmarsh, L. (2007). Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications. Global environmental change, 17(3), 445-459. [27]. McCarl, B. A. (2010). Analysis of climate change implications for agriculture and forestry: an interdisciplinary effort. Climatic change, 100(1), 119-124. [28]. Niemeyer, S., Petts, J., & Hobson, K. (2005). Rapid climate change and society: assessing responses and thresholds. Risk Analysis, 25(6), 1443-1456. [29]. O'Connor, R. E., Bord, R. J., & Fisher, A. (1999). Risk perceptions, general environmental beliefs, and willingness to address climate change. Risk analysis, 19(3), 461-471. [30]. O'Connor, R. E., Bord, R. J., Yarnal, B., & Wiefek, N. (2002). Who wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Social Science Quarterly, 83(1), 1-17. [31]. Ohe, M., & Ikeda, S. (2005). Global warming: risk perception and risk-mitigating behavior in Japan. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10(2), 221-236. [32]. Ouyang, W., Qi, S., Hao, F., Wang, X., Shan, Y., & Chen, S. (2013). Impact of crop patterns and cultivation on carbon sequestration and global warming potential in an agricultural freeze zone. Ecological Modelling, 252, 228-237. [33]. Rejesus, R. M., Mutuc-Hensley, M., Mitchell, P. D., Coble, K. H., & Knight, T. O. (2013). US agricultural producer perceptions of climate change. Journal of agricultural and applied economics, 45(04), 701-718. [34]. Semenza, J. C., Hall, D. E., Wilson, D. J., Bontempo, B. D., Sailor, D. J., & George, L. A. (2008). Public perception of climate change: voluntary mitigation and barriers to behavior change. American journal of preventive medicine, 35(5), 479-487. [35]. Smith, P., Martino, D., Cai, Z., Gwary, D., Janzen, H., Kumar, P., McCarl, B., Ogle, S., O'Mara, F., Rice, C., Scholes, B., Sirotenko, O., Howden, M., McAllister, T., Pan, G., Romanenkov, V., Schneider, U., Towprayoon, S., )2007(. Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 118 (1–4), 6–28. [36]. Spence, A., Poortinga, W., & Pidgeon, N. (2012). The psychological distance of climate change. Risk Analysis, 32(6), 957-972. [37]. Spence, A., Poortinga, W., Butler, C., & Pidgeon, N. F. (2011). Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience. Nature climate change, 1(1), 46-49. [38]. Stuart, D., Schewe, R. L., & McDermott, M. (2012). Responding to Climate Change Barriers to Reflexive Modernization in US Agriculture. Organization & Environment, 25(3), 308-327. [39]. Truelove, H. B., & Parks, C. (2012). Perceptions of behaviors that cause and mitigate global warming and intentions to perform these behaviors. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 32(3), 246-259. [40]. Ungar, S. )2000(. Knowledge, ignorance and the popular culture: Climate change versus the ozone hole. Public Understanding of Science 9: 297–312. [41]. Weber, E. U. (2010). What shapes perceptions of climate change?. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(3), 332-342. [42]. Whitmarsh, L. (2009). Behavioural responses to climate change: Asymmetry of intentions and impacts. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 29(1), 13-23. [43]. Yazdanpanah, M., Forouzani, M & Zobeidi, T. (2015). A typology of Iranian farmer perceptions of climate change: Application of the Qmethodology. A typology of Iranian farmer perceptions of climate change: Application of the Q- methodology. Proceedings of 31st Q Conference. Università Politecnica delle Marche (pp. 121-123).  ANCONA. ITALY. [44]. Zobeidi, T., Yazdanpanah, M., Forouzani, M, & Khosravipour, B. (2016). Climate change discourse among Iranian farmers. Journal of Climatic Change.
انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.58268 Research Article Evaluation of Extreme cold temperatures spatio-temporal Iran under the effects of global warming to reduce risks Omidvar Kamal Professor of Climatology, Yazad University, Yazd, I.R of Iran. Ebrahimi Reza PhD Student Climatology, Yazad University, Yazd, I.R of Iran. Dadashi Roudbari AbbasAli PhD Student in Urban Climatology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, I.R of Iran. Malek Mirzayi Maryam MSC Natural Resource, Yazad University, Yazd, I.R of Iran. 22 12 2015 2 4 423 437 31 01 2016 23 07 2016 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_58268.html

According to climate changes in recent years due to consequences of economic, social and financial damages associated with uncomfortable events to reduce the risks of many importance. in an effective risk management system, identification and forecast as the main pillar of the system is considered to be so this study aims to mull over the effect of global warming in Iran so cold temperatures during the coming decades to say come in; since the identity of the regions and their zoning is an important step in order to reduce risks arising from it. In order to achieve the prime target of daily temperature data model EH5OM the Max Planck Institute Germany during the period (2015 - 2050 AD) , under the scenario A1B 1 / 75 differentiation degree arched , to the extent of Iran loaded . In the next step releasing data with a separate 0 / 27 * 0 / 27 arched by the model REGCM4 Downscaled. Cold days to identify the standard deviation of index temperature (NTD). Data in terms of rule extended heat index value (NTD< 0) are arranged and then the first 500 days that condition (NTD> -2) estimates that were selected in the sample sentence and an array of size 500 × 2140 was formed. The results indicate that the frost so that Iran could be using cluster analysis methods in neural network SOM divided into nine regions. In the coming decades Extreme cold in the western half and altitude bar (mountains and foothills) more visible areas inside and southern coasts. Minimum event Extreme cold Iran is related to the plain desert and maximum in the northwest.     

 Extreme cold temperatures EH5OM model RegCM4 SOM clustering Iran [1]. احمدی، محمود؛ لشکری، حسن؛ کیخسروی، قاسم؛ آزادی، مجید (1393). تحلیل شاخص‌های حدی دما در آشکارسازی تغییر اقلیم خراسان بزرگ. جغرافیا (فصلنامۀ علمی ـ پژوهشی و بین‌المللی انجمن جغرافیای ایران)، دورۀ جدید، سال سیزدهم، شمارۀ 4: 21-20. [2]. اسماعیلی، رضا؛ فلاح قالهری، غلامعباس؛ حبیبی نوخندان، مجید (1389). ارزیابی تغییرات طول دورۀ رشد و طول دوره یخبندان براثر تغییرات اقلیمی. پژوهش‌های جغرافیایی، دانشگاه تهران شمارۀ 69، پاییز 1389. [3]. رحیم‌زاده، فاطمه، عسگری، احمد؛ فتاحی، ابراهیم؛ محمدیان، نوشین؛ پورافسانه، تقی (1393). روند نمایه‌های حدی اقلیمی دما در ایران طی دورۀ 2003-1951، فصلنامۀ تحقیقات جغرافیایی، شمارۀ 93: 144-119. [4]. روشن، غلامرضا؛ خوش اخلاق، فرامرز؛ عزیـزی، قاسم (1390). آزمـون مـدل مناسـب گردش عمومی جو برای پیشیابی مقادیر دما و بارش ایران تحت شـرایط گرمـایش جهانی. مجلۀ جغرافیا و توسعه، شمارۀ 10، شمارۀ 27: 36-19. [5]. عرفانیان، مریم؛ انصاری، حسین؛ علیزاده، امین؛ بنایان، محمد (1393). بررسی تغییرات شاخص‌های حدی هواشناسی در استان خراسان رضوی. نشریۀ آبیاری و زهکشی ایران، شمارۀ 4، جلد 8: 825-817. [6]. علیجانی، بهلول؛ فرج زاده، حسن (1392). تحلیل روند شاخص‌های دمای فرین در شمال ایران. نشریۀ علمی – پژوهشی جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، سال 19، شمارۀ 52: 24-23. [7]. محمدی، حسین؛ خوش‌اخلاق، فرامرز؛ حیدری، محمدامین؛ غیاث الحسینی، مرضیه (1392). واکاوی و پیشیابی اثر گرمایش جهانی بر مؤلفه‌های فرین آب‌وهوایی آبادان. کاوش‌های جغرافیایی مناطق بیابانی، سال دوم، شمارۀ 3: 205-234. [8]. محمدیاریان، محترم؛ مفیدی، عباس؛ حسین‌زاد، سیدرضا (1392). پهنه‌بندی مخاطرات دمایی در شمال شرق ایران‌. نخستین کنفرانس ملی آب‌وهواشناسی، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری کرمان، اردیبهشت 1392: 13-1. [9]. مسعودیان، سید ابوالفضل؛ دارند، محمد (1390). شناسایی و پهنه‌بندی دمای فرین سرد ایران. مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق خشک، ‌سال اول شمارۀ 2: 54-43.  [10]. مسعودیان، سید ابوالفضل؛ علیجانی، بهلول؛ ابراهیمی،رضا (1391). واکاوی میانگین مجموع درجه/روز نیاز (گرمایش و سرمایش) در قلمرو ایران. پژوهش‌های جغرافیایی، شمارۀ 1: 36-23. [11]. مسعودیان، سید ابوالفضل؛ دارند، محمد (1392). شناسایی و بررسی تغییرات نمایه‌های بارش فرین ایران طی دهه‌های اخیر. جغرافیا و توسعۀ ناحیه‌ای، شمارۀ 20: 258-239. [12]. مسعودیان، سید ابوالفضل؛ زینالی، حمید؛ حجتی‌زاده، رحیم (1387). نواحی دمایی ایران. فصلنامۀ تحقیقات جغرافیایی، شمارۀ 89: 18-3.  [13]. Baylari, A., & Montazer, G. A. (2009). Design a personalized e-learning system based on item response theory and artificial neural network approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(4), 8013-8021.  [14]. Cahynová, M., & Huth, R. (2009). Changes of atmospheric circulation in central Europe and their influence on climatic trends in the Czech Republic. Theoretical and applied climatology, 96(1-2), 57-68.  [15]. Christidis, N., Stott, P. A., Brown, S., Hegerl, G. C., & Caesar, J. (2005). Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(20).  [16]. Fujibe, F., Yamazaki, N., Kobayashi, K., & Nakamigawa, H. (2007). Long-term changes of temperature extremes and day-to-day variability in Japan, papers in Meterology and Geophysics.  [17]. IPCC. (2007). Change, I. P. O. C. Fourth assessment report. IPCC, Ge.  [18]. Krishna, L. V. (2014). Long term temperature trends in four different climatic zones of Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Applied, 4(5).  [19]. Quante, M. (2010). The changing climate: past, present, future. In Relict Species (pp. 9-56). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.  [20]. Reiss, R. D., Thomas, M., & Reiss, R. D. (2007). Statistical analysis of extreme values (Vol. 2). Basel: Birkhäuser.  [21]. Rensch (2009). A tracking climatology for heat wave in southern, Australia University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.vol.9, pp.20-34. [22]. Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., & Schulzweida, U. (2006). Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. Journal of Climate, 19(16), 3771-3791. [23]. Schwalm, C. R., Huntinzger, D. N., Michalak, A. M., Fisher, J. B., Kimball, J. S., Mueller, B., ... & Zhang, Y. (2013). Sensitivity of inferred climate model skill to evaluation decisions: a case study using CMIP5 evapotranspiration. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024028.  [24]. Stephenson, D. B., Pavan, V., Collins, M., Junge, M. M., & Quadrelli, R. (2006). North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment. Climate Dynamics, 27(4), 401-420.  [25]. Zhang, S., Zhang, D., Wang, S., & Song, Y. (2006). Climatic characteristics of summer high temperature and assessment methods in the large cities of North China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 16(1), 13-22.  [26]. Zhao, C., Wang, W., & Xing, W. (2012). Regional analysis of extreme temperature indices for the Haihe river basin from 1960 to 2009. Procedia Engineering, 28, 604-607.
انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.58272 Applied Article Statistical-Synoptic Analysis of CO pollutant Density according to wind direction and speed and its hazard in Tehran City kermani azar Msc of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University Akbary Mehry Assistant Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University Alijani Bohloul Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Mafakheri Omid PhD Student of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University 22 12 2015 2 4 439 450 04 02 2016 23 07 2016 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_58272.html

Air pollution is one of the environmental hazards in metropolitans which made the life very expensive and even hazardous during last decades. The main aim of the present study is to determine the synoptic patterns which lead to formation and intensification of stable atmospheric conditions in cold seasons of year. The present study investigated the thermal and dynamic systems that lead to stable atmospheric conditions in Tehran in the cold season. In this study statistical, synoptic and Thermo-dynamic methods are used to achieve the objectives.The wind characteristics in all geographical directions (16 directions) were examined in a 10-year period in Tehran City. In order to calculate the correlation between CO and wind speed, Pearson Correlation Method and regression analysis were used in SPSS and MS Excell. The results showed a significant correlation between CO emissions and wind speed in all directions, but by separating all 16 wind directions, the highest correlation (significant at 99% confidence level) between the wind speed at the directions of NW ,SSE and W was observed which means that by increasing the wind speed, the density of CO emissions reduced (and vice versa). Another result from wind analysis is that there is a direct correlation between NE and ENE directions and CO pollutant which means that by increasing the wind speed in mentioned directions, the density of CO emissions increased as well. Also results showed that average wind speed in polluted days is 1.3 meter per second which is far less than the average of 2.5 meter per second in the period. For synoptic analysis, 14 severe polluted days in cold seasons were selected during the period of 2002 to 2012. Maps of MSLP, 700 and 500 hpa and vorticity map in Grads software were drawn using ECMWF reanalysis data. The results showed that most of the selected polluted days have followed the same synoptic pattern in which high pressure systems dominated and Tehran is located in the ridges axis and due to convergence in upper-air levels, subsidence had occurred near surface levels and the negative vorticity in the region intensified the air pollution. In Thermo-dynamic analysis, by drawing SkewT diagram in Raob software, the type and altitude of inversion, is determined. According to the results, The air pollution severity becomes very hazardous and critical at the times which radiational inversion occurs in altitudes less than 100 meters. Also results showed that in stable atmosphere, wind speed is very low from earth to mid levels of troposphere.    

 CO pollutant Hazard Skew-T Wind cold season Tehran city [1]  بازگیر، سعید؛ قدیری معصوم، مجتبی؛ شمسی پور، علی‌اکبر؛ سیدی سرنجیانه، شیوا (1394). تحلیل رابطۀ آلودگی هوای تهران با ترافیک و شرایط جو برای کاهش مخاطرات، دانش مخاطرات. دورۀ 2، شمارۀ 1: 49-35. [2]   ثقفی، محمدعلی؛ علی‌اکبری بیدختی، عباسعلی (1393). بررسی تغییرات شبانه‌روزی و فصلی باد و دمای هوا و آلاینده‌های co و pm10 در لایۀ سطحی جو شهر تهران. نشریۀ تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی، دورۀ 1، شمارۀ 1: 34-17. [3]  رضایی، ایوب؛ رضایی، محمدرضا؛ صیادی، محمدحسین (1392). بررسی کمی و کیفی آلودگی هوا و ارتباط آن با عوامل اقلیمی شهر بیرجند در سال 1391، گزارش کوتاه سلامت جامعه، دورۀ هفتم، شمارۀ 4: 65-62. [4]  رنجبر سعادت‌آبادی، عباس و قصابی، زهرا، (1390). مطالعه همدیدی الگوهای جوی حاکم بر روی تهران در روزهای با آلودگی بسیار شدید هوا، نشریۀ پژوهش‌های اقلیم‌شناسی، سال دوم، شماره‌های 5 و 6 :56-39. [5]  رنجبر سعادت‌آبادی، عباس ؛ محمدیان محمدی، لیلا (1389). مطالعۀ میانگین الگوهای همدیدی بر اساس رخداد غلظت‌های مختلف آلایندۀ co در فصول تابستان و پاییز در تهران، پژوهش‌های جغرافیای طبیعی، شمارۀ 72: 127-111. [6]  شرعی‌پور، زهرا(1388). بررسی تغییرات فصلی و روزانۀ آلاینده‌های هوا و ارتباط آن با پارامتر‌های هواشناسی، مجلۀ فیزیک زمین و فضا دورۀ 35، شمارۀ 2: 119- 137. [7]   صفوی، یحیی؛ علیجانی، بهلول (1385). بررسی عوامل جغرافیایی در آلودگی هوای تهران، پژوهش‌های جغرافیای طبیعی، شمارۀ 58: 112-99. [8]   غ‍ی‍اث‌ال‍دی‍ن، م‍ن‍ص‍ور (1385). آل‍ودگ‍ی ه‍وا، منابع، اثرات و کنترل، چاپ دوم، انتشارات دانشگاه تهران:330-329. [9]  کرمانی، آذر؛ مفاخری، امید؛ دوستی فرد، الهام؛ کهریزی، فرانک (1393). آلودگی هوای شهر تهران با تأکید بر ساعت‌های تراکم آلاینده در شبانه‌روز، اولین کنفرانس ملی الکترونیکی توسعۀ پایدار در علوم جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، معماری و شهرسازی، تهران، ، مرکز راهکارهای دستیابی به توسعۀ پایدار. [10]             Aliakbari Bidokhti, A.; Shareipoor,  Z. (2009). Meteorological conditions top atmospheric and acutesituation air pollution (case study: Tehran, Journal of Environmental studies, 35 (52):1-14. [11]   Alijani, B. )2004(. The Relation between Pressure and Air Pollution Concentration in Tehran, 30th International Geography Union, Glasgow, England. [12]   Bahaattin Celik, M.; Kavy, I.(2007) . Relation Between Meteorological factors and pollutants concentrations in karabuk city, Journal of Science, 20: 87- 95. [13]   Demirci, E.; Cuhadaroghlu, B.(1996). Statical analysis of wind circulation and air pollution in urban Trabzon, Energy and Buildings, 31(2000): 49-53. DOI:10.1016/S0378-7788(99)00002-X [14]   Givi, A.; Sabetghadam, S. 2006. Study of sensitivity of the meso-scale model MM5 schemas using MRF and Eta-Mellor-yamada for estimate the depth of the urban mixed layer, Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction. [15]             Hosseinzade, S. R. (2004). Environmental crises in the metropolises of Iran. Sustainable city III, England, 79:179-187.DOI:10.2495/SC040191 [16]             Khedairia, Soufiane.; Tarek Khadir, Mohamed.(2012). Impact of clustered meteorological parameters on air pollutants concentrations in the region of Annaba, Algeria, (113):89–101. [17]   Wu, Ye.; Nelson, Peter F). 2014). Using Computer Modelling to Simulate Atmospheric Movement and Potential Risk of Pollutants from Post-combustion Carbon Capture Projects. Energy Procedia . 12th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies,GHGT-12.  (63): 976–985.  DOI:10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.106
انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.58274 Applied Article Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Event Resulting in floods on June 28th 1394 in Alborz Province Natural disaster Ahmadi Hamzeh Ph.D student of Agricultural Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Hakimsabzevari baaghideh mohammad Assisstant prof of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Hakimsabzevari Asadi Saeed M.Sc. in Climatology, Bureau of Yazd Meteorology Researchs Ahmadi Fariburz M.Sc. in Climatology, University of Isfahan Payame-Noor 22 12 2015 2 4 451 469 28 03 2016 23 07 2016 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_58274.html

    Flash floods caused by short heavy precipitation are one of the most important natural hazards. The main objective of the study is to provide a synoptic and thermodynamic mechanism analysis of the severe rainfall leading to floods on July 28th, 1394, in Alborz province. According to Sijan and Kondor rain-gauge stations as well as Karaj synoptic station, precipitation features and the occurrence of rainfalls in the warm season were determined. Furthermore, anomaly data, geopotential heights, vertical velocity (omega), and vorticity in the days prior to the precipitation at 500 and 850 hpa and sea level were determined and drawn based on GRADS. The instability indexes and the Skew-T thermodynamic graph were analyzed based on Tehran synoptic station. The main synoptic features of the rainfall include the cold weather in the upper atmosphere, creation of quasi-stationary trough, and surface earth low-pressure, injection and continuous supply of moisture from Caspian Sea and northwestern streams. The dominant pattern at sea level before and during the precipitation was thermal low pressure in Pakistan. The vertical velocity (omega) at the time of the rainfall strengthened  and more than 500 hPa and 850 hPa was observed. On the day of the precipitation, the amount of positive vorticity reached +9 due to the movement of the upper atmosphere meridional flows. The rainfall with Showalter Index in severe unstable conditions as well as Precipitation Index enjoyed the necessary water vapor for heavy rainfall in the region. High temperature difference between the upper level in atmosphere and ground surface during warm seasons causes heavy precipitation. Hence, such knowledge could be reliable source for flood warnings before the occurrence of the crisis.    

 Alborz Flood instability Synoptic Severe rainfall event [1]. احمدی، محمود؛ جعفری، فرزانه (1394). واکاوی بارش فوق سنگین 23 اسفند 1392 مولد سیلاب مخرب در شهرستان بندرعباس، دانش مخاطرات، شمارۀ 3: 324-307. [2]. امیدوار، کمال؛ الفتی، سعید؛ اقبالی بابابادی، فریبا و مرادی، خدیجه (1392). واکاوی ترمودینامیکی بارش­های سنگین ناشی از پدیدۀ سردچال جوی در نواحی مرکزی و جنوب غرب ایران (مطالعۀ موردی: رخداد بارش 11 آذر 1387). نشریۀ جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، شمارۀ 5: 19-1. [3]. امینی، میترا؛ لشکری، حسن؛ کرمپور، مصطفی و حجتی، زهرا (1392). تحلیل سینوپتیک سامانه‌های همراه با بارش سنگین و سیل زا در حوضۀ رودخانۀ کشکان برای دورۀ آماری (1384-1350). نشریۀ علمی – پژوهشی جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، شمارۀ 43: 2 – 1. [4]. اکبری، مهری؛ محمدی، حسین؛ شمسی‌پور، علی اکبر (1393). بررسی تغییرات شاخص­های دینامیکی همزمان با توفان­های حوضۀ آبریز کارون. نشریۀ علمی – پژوهشی جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، شمارۀ 48: 36- 17. [5]. رحیمی، داریوش (1388).  تأثیر رگبارهای منفرد بر مدیریت بحران سیل (نمونۀ مطالعاتی حوضۀ فارسان). نشریۀ جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی محیطی، شمارۀ 3: 100- 85. [6]. صلاحی، برومند؛ عالی جهان، مهدی (1392). تحلیل سینوپتیکی مخاطرات افلیمی شهرستان یاسوج (مطالعۀ موردی: بارش سنگین 20 اسفند 1389). جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، شمارۀ 5: 89-73. [7]. عزیزی، قاسم؛ صمدی، زهرا (1386). تحلیل سینوپتیکی سیل 28 مهرماه 1382 استان‌های گیلان و مازندران، پژوهش­های جغرافیایی، شمارۀ 60: 74-61. [8]. علیجانی، بهلول (1385). اقلیم‌شناسی سینوپتیک. چاپ دوم. تهران: انتشارات سمت. [9]. علیجانی، بهلول؛ رضایی، غلامحسین (1393). توزیع زمانی – مکانی تاوایی نسبی در ایران با تأکید بر بارش، فصلنامۀ علمی – پژوهشی جغرافیا، انجمن جغرافیای ایران. شمارۀ 42: 102 – 89. [10]. گزارش عملکرد معاونت امداد ونجات، جمعیت هلال احمر استان البرز (1394). جمعیت هلال احمر استان البرز. [11]. گندمکار، امیر (1391). مدیریت بحران وقوع سیل در شهر اصفهان با استفاده از سامانه­های جوی. فصلنامۀ تحقیقات جغرافیایی، شمارۀ 2: 127-116. [12]. لشکری، حسن (1390). اصول، مبانی، تهیه و تفسیر نقشه­ها و نمودارهای اقلیمی. تهران:  انتشارات دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.   [13]. Ahasan, M. N., & Khan, A. Q. (2013). Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan using WRF-ARW model. Natural hazards, 69(1): 351-363. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0719-6. [14]. Burgess, C. P., Taylor, M. A., Stephenson, T., & Mandal, A. (2015). Frequency analysis, infilling and trends for extreme precipitation for Jamaica (1895–2100). Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 3: 424 - 443. DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.10.004. [15].Borga, M., Anagnostou, E. N., Blöschl, G., & Creutin, J. D. (2011). Flash floodrecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project. Environmental Science & Policy, 14(7): 834-844.   DOI:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.017. [16]. Duan, W., He, B., Takara, K., Luo, P., Nover, D., Yamashiki, Y., & Huang, W. (2014). Anomalous atmospheric events leading to Kyushu’s flash floods, July 11–14, 2012. Natural Hazards, 73(3):1255-1267. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1134-3. [17]. Huntrieser, H., Schiesser, H. H., Schmid, W., & Waldvogel, A. (1997). Comparison of traditional and newly developed thunderstorm indices for Switzerland. Weather and Forecasting, 12(1): 108-125. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0108:COTAND>2.0.CO;2. [18]. Joffe, H. Rossetto, T, and Adams, J. 2013. Cities at risk, living with perils in the 21 st century.  Springer Dordrecht Heildelberg New Yourk London. ISBN 1878-9897. [19]. Kömüşcü, A. Ü., & Çelik, S. (2013). Analysis of the Marmara flood in Turkey, 7–10 September 2009: an assessment from hydrometeorological perspective. Natural hazards, 66(2): 781-808. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0521-x. [20]. Montesarchio, V., Napolitano, F., Rianna, M., Ridolfi, E., Russo, F., & Sebastianelli, S. (2015). Comparison of methodologies for flood rainfall thresholds estimation. Natural Hazards, 75(1): 909-934. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1357-3. [21]. Matsangouras, I. T., Nastos, P. T., & Pytharoulis, I. (2016). Study of the tornado event in Greece on March 25, 2009: Synoptic analysis and numerical modeling using modified topography. Atmospheric Research, 169:566-583. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.08.010. [22]. Ntelekos, A. A., Smith, J. A., & Krajewski, W. F. (2007). Climatological analyses of thunderstorms and flash floods in the Baltimore metropolitan region. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8(1): 88-101. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM558.1. [23].Rulfová, Z., Buishand, A., Roth, M., & Kyselý, J. (2016). A two-component generalized extreme value distribution for precipitation frequency analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 534: 659-668.  DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.032. [24]. Siedlecki, M. (2009). Selected instability indices in Europe. Theoretical and applied climatology, 96(1-2): 85-94. DOI:10.1007/s00704-008-0034-4.  [25]. World Meteorological Organization. (2011). Manual on flood forecasting and warning. WMO-No. 1072, [26]. Zhang, K. Pan, Sh. Cao, L. Wang, Y. Zhao, Y and Zhang, W. 2014. Spatial istribution and temporal trends in precipitation extremes over the Hengduan mountain region, China, from 1961 to 2012. Quaternary International 349: 346 - 356. DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.04.050. [27]. Zheng, Z., Qi, S., & Xu, Y. (2013). Questionable frequent occurrence of urban flood hazards in modern cities of China. Natural hazards, 62: 1009-1020. DOI.10.1007/11069-012-0397-9.  [28]. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/NCEP/NCAR/Reanalysis. [29]. http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html.
انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران 165 10.22059/jhsci.2015.61230 unavailable English Abstracts 22 12 2015 2 4 1 6 16 04 2017 16 04 2017 Copyright © 2015, انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران. 2015 https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_61230.html

unavailable