Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X 3 1 2016 03 20 Analysis possible to predict the likelihood of timely and issuing the necessary knowledge Thunderstorm and flood in July 2015 in Tehran for vulnerability redaction Analysis possible to predict the likelihood of timely and issuing the necessary knowledge Thunderstorm and flood in July 2015 in Tehran for vulnerability redaction 21 31 59272 10.22059/jhsci.2016.59272 FA Fatemeh Dargahian Faculty member the desert research, Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Tehran, Iran. Raman Parn Master of Science in Meteorology Meteorological Organization, Khuzestan Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2016 07 19 Thunderstorm and flood in July 2015 in Tehran, at the same time covered 10 provinces. So not a local phenomenon occurred on a large scale and synoptic rooted in the general circulation atmosphere and large-scale phenomena such as changes in the polar vortex. In the warm season convection and provides synchronization of the dynamic conditions the atmosphere can provide the potential for thunderstorms. In this study, using maps prediction, station information upper atmosphere, conditions Synoptic and indicators of thermodynamics, such as PW, CAPE, SWEAT, LI, TT, K happening thunderstorms dated 19 July 2015 in Tehran were analyzed to evaluate Predictability. The results showed that the synoptic conditions and thermodynamic parameters of the upper atmosphere at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport stations have shown to predict potential flood risk at moderate to high risk. Therefore, access and timely monitoring and information upper air and maps prediction and also early warning system to inform, thunderstorms, especially storms are associated with rainfall, predictable and reduce the damage caused by them is possible. <strong> </strong> Thunderstorm and flood in July 2015 in Tehran, at the same time covered 10 provinces. So not a local phenomenon occurred on a large scale and synoptic rooted in the general circulation atmosphere and large-scale phenomena such as changes in the polar vortex. In the warm season convection and provides synchronization of the dynamic conditions the atmosphere can provide the potential for thunderstorms. In this study, using maps prediction, station information upper atmosphere, conditions Synoptic and indicators of thermodynamics, such as PW, CAPE, SWEAT, LI, TT, K happening thunderstorms dated 19 July 2015 in Tehran were analyzed to evaluate Predictability. The results showed that the synoptic conditions and thermodynamic parameters of the upper atmosphere at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport stations have shown to predict potential flood risk at moderate to high risk. Therefore, access and timely monitoring and information upper air and maps prediction and also early warning system to inform, thunderstorms, especially storms are associated with rainfall, predictable and reduce the damage caused by them is possible. <strong> </strong> https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_59272_26f8b18ea65c00d4ba231916c8ecb40a.pdf