Environmental Management Hazards 2423-415X 3 3 2016 09 22 Modelling and Prediction of Precipitation and Drought Trends in North West of Iran with the Purpose of Hazard Mitigation Modelling and Prediction of Precipitation and Drought Trends in North West of Iran with the Purpose of Hazard Mitigation 233 252 62037 10.22059/jhsci.2016.62037 FA Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust Professor, Department of climatology, University of Tabriz Aliakbar Rasuly Professor, Department of Remosensing, , University of Tabriz Saeed Zangeneh PH.D student, Department of Climatology University of Tabriz Journal Article 2017 01 26 The prediction of probability of drought occurrence in different years and its mitigation measures are at the peak of drought management decisions. The aim of present research is the prediction of drought by the use of downscaling statistical methods and artificial data creation technique. For getting the work done, a synthetic study was carried out by utilization of meteorological stations data, the outputs of statistical analyses and finally using SPI drought index. First, artificial data was produced through CLIMGEN, then SPI value was predicted. Then Minitab software was used for the calculation and drawing of the trends in selected stations of the North West.  For validity approval the model was adapted by observational and produced data. The correlation between artificially created data and observed data was estimated by SPSS software. Results indicated a suitable validity for most of the stations. Accordingly, Ardebil, Jolfa, and Tekab show a smooth precipitation declining and drought increasing trend. Khoy, Mianeh, and Sardasht are among the stations which prove a moderate precipitation and increasing wet conditions, while there were not seen any changes in Tabriz, Urmia, and Parsabad stations. The prediction of probability of drought occurrence in different years and its mitigation measures are at the peak of drought management decisions. The aim of present research is the prediction of drought by the use of downscaling statistical methods and artificial data creation technique. For getting the work done, a synthetic study was carried out by utilization of meteorological stations data, the outputs of statistical analyses and finally using SPI drought index. First, artificial data was produced through CLIMGEN, then SPI value was predicted. Then Minitab software was used for the calculation and drawing of the trends in selected stations of the North West.  For validity approval the model was adapted by observational and produced data. The correlation between artificially created data and observed data was estimated by SPSS software. Results indicated a suitable validity for most of the stations. Accordingly, Ardebil, Jolfa, and Tekab show a smooth precipitation declining and drought increasing trend. Khoy, Mianeh, and Sardasht are among the stations which prove a moderate precipitation and increasing wet conditions, while there were not seen any changes in Tabriz, Urmia, and Parsabad stations. https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_62037_ff8d7f8ca7128ddae220b5c5653b2e16.pdf