Environmental Management Hazards2423-415X12220250922Hydrological drought monitoring in the shoor river catchment area using the streamflow drought index (SDI)Hydrological drought monitoring in the shoor river catchment area using the streamflow drought index (SDI)9511510350610.22059/jhsci.2025.399292.888FAAsmaAsgharipour Dasht BozorgDepartment of Geography, Ahv.c., Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, IranJafarMorshediDepartment of Urban Planning, Sho.c., Islamic Azad University, Shoushtar, IranRezaBornaDepartment of Geography, Ahv.c., Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, IranJebraeilGhorbanianDepartment of Geography, Ahv.c., Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, IranManochehrJavanmardiDepartment of Geography, Ahv.c., Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, IranJournal Article20250723<strong>Objective: </strong>Hydrological drought is a part of the natural flow regime, but severe and prolonged events can lead to reduced river flows, limiting human uses and diminishing environmental flow availability. the aim of this study is to assess hydrological drought in the shoor river catchment area using the streamflow drought index (SDI).<br /><strong>Method:</strong> In this study, the status of hydrological drought in the shoor river catchment area was assessed using the streamflow drought index (SDI) on monthly and annual scales during the statistical period 1983–2023. for this purpose, annual precipitation data from the Masjedsoleyman synoptic station and annual discharge data from the dasht bozorg hydrometric station in the shoor river catchment area were used. the Mann–Kendall test was also used to determine the trend of discharge variations.<br /><strong>Results:</strong> The results of the streamflow trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test indicated a decreasing trend in basin discharge at a 95% confidence level. the results of the streamflow drought index (SDI) indicate that during the early years of the statistical study period (1983–1999), the dasht bozorg hydrometric station generally experienced either no drought or intermittent mild droughts, and from the year 2000 to the end of the statistical period, the severity of droughts has increased. in general, the final years of the study period were associated with more severe drought conditions.<br /><strong>Conclusions:</strong> The results indicate that severe and extreme droughts did not occur at this station during the study period, and in most cases mild drought or no drought conditions prevailed.<strong>Objective: </strong>Hydrological drought is a part of the natural flow regime, but severe and prolonged events can lead to reduced river flows, limiting human uses and diminishing environmental flow availability. the aim of this study is to assess hydrological drought in the shoor river catchment area using the streamflow drought index (SDI).<br /><strong>Method:</strong> In this study, the status of hydrological drought in the shoor river catchment area was assessed using the streamflow drought index (SDI) on monthly and annual scales during the statistical period 1983–2023. for this purpose, annual precipitation data from the Masjedsoleyman synoptic station and annual discharge data from the dasht bozorg hydrometric station in the shoor river catchment area were used. the Mann–Kendall test was also used to determine the trend of discharge variations.<br /><strong>Results:</strong> The results of the streamflow trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test indicated a decreasing trend in basin discharge at a 95% confidence level. the results of the streamflow drought index (SDI) indicate that during the early years of the statistical study period (1983–1999), the dasht bozorg hydrometric station generally experienced either no drought or intermittent mild droughts, and from the year 2000 to the end of the statistical period, the severity of droughts has increased. in general, the final years of the study period were associated with more severe drought conditions.<br /><strong>Conclusions:</strong> The results indicate that severe and extreme droughts did not occur at this station during the study period, and in most cases mild drought or no drought conditions prevailed.https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_103506_3a3b67883577e54d2abedaeebd70d25d.pdfEnvironmental Management Hazards2423-415X12220250922Geological and morphotectonic analysis of landslides (Study area: Tang Hamam and Alvand drainage basins in Sarpol Zahab county)Geological and morphotectonic analysis of landslides (Study area: Tang Hamam and Alvand drainage basins in Sarpol Zahab county)11713310389810.22059/jhsci.2025.400930.892FAForuzanNaseriPhD Student of Geomorphology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, TehranShahramBahramiAssociate Professor of Geomorphology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IranَAlirezaSalehipour MilaniProfessor of Geomorphology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IranMohsenEhteshami-MoinabadiAssociate Professor of the Sedimentary Basins and Petroleum Department. Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, IranJournal Article20250818Landslides, as one of the unstable slope processes, play an important role in transforming mountainous landscapes and are a serious challenge in environmental management by causing changes in topography and destroying infrastructure. In this study, in order to evaluate the distribution of landslides and their relationship with morphotectonics, two basins of Tang Hamam and Alvand (Sarpol Zahab) in the Zagros zone were investigated. Using field studies and satellite images, a total of 65 landslide events were identified, and the ratio of landslide area to basin area (LA) and landslide density (LD) in the basins were obtained. Then, using geomorphological and tectonic indices, such as hypsometric integral (Hi), the valley height-width ratio (Vf), the basin asymmetry factor (Af), basin shape (Bs), the stream gradient-length ratio (SL), the mountain-front sinuosity (Smf), and Relative Tectonic Activity Index (Iat), the tectonic status of the basins was evaluated. Also, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides, including faults, earthquake focus, slope, and litology, and their quantitative relationship with the extent and frequency of landslides, were investigated. Spatial analyses of morphometric indices and relative tectonic activity index showed that tectonically, both the Tang Hamam and Alvand basins have moderate activity with values of 2.33 and 2, respectively. The ratio of landslide area to the basin area is 23.69% in the Tang Hamam basin whereas this ratio is 0.45% in the Alvand basin. Investigating the distribution of landslides relative to active faults and earthquake epicenters also showed that more than 97 percent of landslides are located less than 2 kilometers from active faults and more than 95 percent of them are located near earthquake epicenters. The findings also show that slope gradient is one of the effective factors in the occurrence of landslides, and the highest density of landslides was observed in slope angle class of 15-30 degrees. Geologically, most landslides have occurred in loose, low-resistance formations such as Amiran, Pabdeh, and Young alluvial deposits. Also, the presence of alternating hard layers of Asmari formation over loose and soft layers such as Pabdeh, especially in the Alvand basin and the slopes of the Shahneshin Mountain in the Tang Hamam basin, has led to increased instability and the occurrence of landslides. Overall, the study area has moderate tectonic activity with significant structural heterogeneity. These conditions, especially in areas that are simultaneously affected by geology, faults, earthquakes, slope, and morphometric features, increase the occurrence of landslides.Landslides, as one of the unstable slope processes, play an important role in transforming mountainous landscapes and are a serious challenge in environmental management by causing changes in topography and destroying infrastructure. In this study, in order to evaluate the distribution of landslides and their relationship with morphotectonics, two basins of Tang Hamam and Alvand (Sarpol Zahab) in the Zagros zone were investigated. Using field studies and satellite images, a total of 65 landslide events were identified, and the ratio of landslide area to basin area (LA) and landslide density (LD) in the basins were obtained. Then, using geomorphological and tectonic indices, such as hypsometric integral (Hi), the valley height-width ratio (Vf), the basin asymmetry factor (Af), basin shape (Bs), the stream gradient-length ratio (SL), the mountain-front sinuosity (Smf), and Relative Tectonic Activity Index (Iat), the tectonic status of the basins was evaluated. Also, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides, including faults, earthquake focus, slope, and litology, and their quantitative relationship with the extent and frequency of landslides, were investigated. Spatial analyses of morphometric indices and relative tectonic activity index showed that tectonically, both the Tang Hamam and Alvand basins have moderate activity with values of 2.33 and 2, respectively. The ratio of landslide area to the basin area is 23.69% in the Tang Hamam basin whereas this ratio is 0.45% in the Alvand basin. Investigating the distribution of landslides relative to active faults and earthquake epicenters also showed that more than 97 percent of landslides are located less than 2 kilometers from active faults and more than 95 percent of them are located near earthquake epicenters. The findings also show that slope gradient is one of the effective factors in the occurrence of landslides, and the highest density of landslides was observed in slope angle class of 15-30 degrees. Geologically, most landslides have occurred in loose, low-resistance formations such as Amiran, Pabdeh, and Young alluvial deposits. Also, the presence of alternating hard layers of Asmari formation over loose and soft layers such as Pabdeh, especially in the Alvand basin and the slopes of the Shahneshin Mountain in the Tang Hamam basin, has led to increased instability and the occurrence of landslides. Overall, the study area has moderate tectonic activity with significant structural heterogeneity. These conditions, especially in areas that are simultaneously affected by geology, faults, earthquakes, slope, and morphometric features, increase the occurrence of landslides.https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_103898_b26b83e64d7d0f05e4b779ff6bcfb230.pdfEnvironmental Management Hazards2423-415X12220250922Site Selection Assessment of Azar Abadeghan Khoy Cement Factory in terms of Flood Hazards Using MEREC ModelSite Selection Assessment of Azar Abadeghan Khoy Cement Factory in terms of Flood Hazards Using MEREC Model13515210389710.22059/jhsci.2025.398196.886FAMohammad HosseinRezaei MoghaddamProfessor of Geomorphology, University of Tabriz and Iranian Hazardology Association, IranTohidRahimpourPostdoctoral Researcher, University of Tabriz, IranJournal Article20250708Due to its geographical location at the outlet of an upstream basin and the presence of an extensive network of primary and secondary waterways, the Azar Abadeghan Cement Factory in Khoy is constantly at risk of destructive flooding. The primary objective of this study is to assess the placement of this factory in relation to flood hazard and to propose appropriate strategies for mitigating potential damages. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the flood hazard, a detailed flood hazard map of the study area was developed. In this research, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, combined with Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities, was employed to create a flood hazard zoning map and identify vulnerable areas. The criteria used in this study included elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance to the river, drainage density, vegetation index, land use, lithology, soil hydrological groups, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, and stream power index. The MEREC method was employed to determine the weights of the criteria. The weighting results revealed that the slope factor, with a weight of 0.137, had the greatest influence on flood occurrence in the region. Following that, lithology (with a weight of 0.131) and precipitation (with a weight of 0.118) ranked second and third, respectively. Based on the analysis of hazard zone areas in the final map, over 16% of the region's area (equivalent to 124 hectares) falls within the high and very high-hazard classes. According to the findings of this study, appropriate preventive and management measures should be implemented to reduce flood hazard around the factory, in order to prevent potential flood-related damages in the future.Due to its geographical location at the outlet of an upstream basin and the presence of an extensive network of primary and secondary waterways, the Azar Abadeghan Cement Factory in Khoy is constantly at risk of destructive flooding. The primary objective of this study is to assess the placement of this factory in relation to flood hazard and to propose appropriate strategies for mitigating potential damages. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the flood hazard, a detailed flood hazard map of the study area was developed. In this research, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, combined with Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities, was employed to create a flood hazard zoning map and identify vulnerable areas. The criteria used in this study included elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance to the river, drainage density, vegetation index, land use, lithology, soil hydrological groups, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, and stream power index. The MEREC method was employed to determine the weights of the criteria. The weighting results revealed that the slope factor, with a weight of 0.137, had the greatest influence on flood occurrence in the region. Following that, lithology (with a weight of 0.131) and precipitation (with a weight of 0.118) ranked second and third, respectively. Based on the analysis of hazard zone areas in the final map, over 16% of the region's area (equivalent to 124 hectares) falls within the high and very high-hazard classes. According to the findings of this study, appropriate preventive and management measures should be implemented to reduce flood hazard around the factory, in order to prevent potential flood-related damages in the future.https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_103897_b98b60fc115937a6687016c15c6b5307.pdfEnvironmental Management Hazards2423-415X12220250922A Development-Oriented Paradigmatic Model for Land Subsidence Risk in Water Resources ManagementA Development-Oriented Paradigmatic Model for Land Subsidence Risk in Water Resources Management15316510393010.22059/jhsci.2025.398222.887FAZahraAbdollahiSoil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Zanjan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Zanjan, IranNafisehSalahi MoghadamSocio-Economic and Extension Research Department, Zanjan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Zanjan, IranJournal Article20250708In recent decades, land subsidence has emerged as a critical environmental and management challenge in Iran’s arid and semi-arid regions. Primarily caused by excessive groundwater extraction, subsidence poses risks far beyond agriculture, threatening water security, infrastructure stability, ecological balance, and community resilience. This study aims to develop a paradigmatic model of the factors influencing land subsidence in Zanjan Province, emphasizing managerial, natural, and human dimensions with special attention to the role of weak water governance. Using a qualitative approach and grounded theory methodology, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in the field. The data were analyzed using MAXQDA software based on a paradigmatic framework comprising causal, intervening, and contextual conditions. The findings reveal that land subsidence results from the complex interplay of multiple drivers. Causal factors include unsustainable groundwater withdrawal, lack of integrated water planning, and weak law enforcement. Intervening factors such as variable climate conditions, geological features, and socio-economic pressures like rural unemployment and low groundwater costs further intensify the problem. Contextual conditions including unstable governance structures, poor inter-agency coordination, low community participation, and insufficient infrastructure accelerate the spread of this hazard. Addressing land subsidence requires a comprehensive strategy rooted in sustainable water resource management. Key recommendations include implementing effective groundwater monitoring, promoting water-efficient irrigation, strengthening institutional capacities, enforcing relevant regulations, and enhancing community awareness and involvement. These insights provide a valuable foundation for developing policies and practical measures to mitigate land subsidence and protect groundwater resources nationwide.In recent decades, land subsidence has emerged as a critical environmental and management challenge in Iran’s arid and semi-arid regions. Primarily caused by excessive groundwater extraction, subsidence poses risks far beyond agriculture, threatening water security, infrastructure stability, ecological balance, and community resilience. This study aims to develop a paradigmatic model of the factors influencing land subsidence in Zanjan Province, emphasizing managerial, natural, and human dimensions with special attention to the role of weak water governance. Using a qualitative approach and grounded theory methodology, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 18 experts in the field. The data were analyzed using MAXQDA software based on a paradigmatic framework comprising causal, intervening, and contextual conditions. The findings reveal that land subsidence results from the complex interplay of multiple drivers. Causal factors include unsustainable groundwater withdrawal, lack of integrated water planning, and weak law enforcement. Intervening factors such as variable climate conditions, geological features, and socio-economic pressures like rural unemployment and low groundwater costs further intensify the problem. Contextual conditions including unstable governance structures, poor inter-agency coordination, low community participation, and insufficient infrastructure accelerate the spread of this hazard. Addressing land subsidence requires a comprehensive strategy rooted in sustainable water resource management. Key recommendations include implementing effective groundwater monitoring, promoting water-efficient irrigation, strengthening institutional capacities, enforcing relevant regulations, and enhancing community awareness and involvement. These insights provide a valuable foundation for developing policies and practical measures to mitigate land subsidence and protect groundwater resources nationwide.https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_103930_3d6a23598c73ebe683cde4c7f2008207.pdfEnvironmental Management Hazards2423-415X12220250922Statistical Investigation of Emerging Dusts in Ardabil Plain: Climate Effects and Mitigation strategiesStatistical Investigation of Emerging Dusts in Ardabil Plain: Climate Effects and Mitigation strategies16718010393110.22059/jhsci.2025.399370.889FABromandSalahiDepartment of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, IranMahnazSaberPostdoctoral Researcher in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, IranJournal Article20250725<strong>Objective</strong>: This study aims to examine the wind and emerging patterns of dust storms in the Ardabil plain over a 19-year period from 2000 to 2018. It focuses on conducting a statistical analysis, pinpointing local hotspots that contribute to the occurrence of these events, and offering practical solutions to mitigate their impacts.
<strong>Methods</strong>: This study utilized three-hour wind direction and speed data from the Ardabil synoptic station, along with current condition codes (06, 07, 08, 09, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35). In combination with the Dust Column Mass Density (DCMD) index, analysis of variance, and LSD tests, the research aimed to assess the influence of the local hotspot on the occurrence and intensification of dust events.
<strong>Findings</strong>: The analysis reveals that the annual dominant wind direction in the Ardabil plain is easterly, with a frequency of 12%, and an average wind speed of 3.8 m/s when calm conditions are included, rising to 6.3 m/s when calm periods are excluded. The peak wind speed was recorded in January. Trends in dust events indicate a notable increase in frequency over recent years, with the highest occurrences observed in 2011 and 2013, totaling 25 days. The greatest monthly average, 1.2 days, was recorded in March. Based on the dust storm rose, the annual pattern of dust entry into the Ardabil plain varies by season, originating from the southwest throughout the year, shifting to northeast during the warmer months of June through August, dual directions (southwest and northeast) in September, and remaining southwest for the rest of the year.
<strong>Conclusion</strong>: The findings highlighted the predominance of storms originating locally, as evidenced by the high frequency of code 07 occurrences (239 cases compared to 61 cases for code 06), elevated DCMD values in Ardabil relative to surrounding areas such as Sarein, Sarab, Mianeh, Meshkinshahr, Nir, and Khalkhal, and statistically significant analyses. The Aghbulaghe-Mustafa-Khan region was identified as the critical local epicenter. This area demonstrated a pivotal influence during the warmer months in particular. Proposed measures include managing the local center, establishing both natural and artificial windbreaks, implementing continuous air quality monitoring, and emphasizing the importance of regional collaboration.<strong>Objective</strong>: This study aims to examine the wind and emerging patterns of dust storms in the Ardabil plain over a 19-year period from 2000 to 2018. It focuses on conducting a statistical analysis, pinpointing local hotspots that contribute to the occurrence of these events, and offering practical solutions to mitigate their impacts.
<strong>Methods</strong>: This study utilized three-hour wind direction and speed data from the Ardabil synoptic station, along with current condition codes (06, 07, 08, 09, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35). In combination with the Dust Column Mass Density (DCMD) index, analysis of variance, and LSD tests, the research aimed to assess the influence of the local hotspot on the occurrence and intensification of dust events.
<strong>Findings</strong>: The analysis reveals that the annual dominant wind direction in the Ardabil plain is easterly, with a frequency of 12%, and an average wind speed of 3.8 m/s when calm conditions are included, rising to 6.3 m/s when calm periods are excluded. The peak wind speed was recorded in January. Trends in dust events indicate a notable increase in frequency over recent years, with the highest occurrences observed in 2011 and 2013, totaling 25 days. The greatest monthly average, 1.2 days, was recorded in March. Based on the dust storm rose, the annual pattern of dust entry into the Ardabil plain varies by season, originating from the southwest throughout the year, shifting to northeast during the warmer months of June through August, dual directions (southwest and northeast) in September, and remaining southwest for the rest of the year.
<strong>Conclusion</strong>: The findings highlighted the predominance of storms originating locally, as evidenced by the high frequency of code 07 occurrences (239 cases compared to 61 cases for code 06), elevated DCMD values in Ardabil relative to surrounding areas such as Sarein, Sarab, Mianeh, Meshkinshahr, Nir, and Khalkhal, and statistically significant analyses. The Aghbulaghe-Mustafa-Khan region was identified as the critical local epicenter. This area demonstrated a pivotal influence during the warmer months in particular. Proposed measures include managing the local center, establishing both natural and artificial windbreaks, implementing continuous air quality monitoring, and emphasizing the importance of regional collaboration.https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_103931_f037273daedb4411dc1b9d60832e0dea.pdfEnvironmental Management Hazards2423-415X12220251007Physical Management System Hazards with Emphasis on the Governance Approach: A Case Study of TehranPhysical Management System Hazards with Emphasis on the Governance Approach: A Case Study of Tehran18119710420110.22059/jhsci.2025.397780.885FAMohammadaliKianiPhD in Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranMohammadrezaKazemiPhD Candidate in Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranAfsanehDehghanpour-FarashahAssistant Professor, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, IranJournal Article20250629<strong>Objective:</strong> This study aims to diagnose the systemic failures of Tehran's physical hazards management system. Complex metropolises like Tehran face fundamental challenges and structural inefficiencies in managing physical hazards, a reality tragically underscored by incidents like the collapse of the Plasco building. More than isolated events, such catastrophes are symptomatic of a broader systemic breakdown. This research argues for a critical shift from the traditional “management” paradigm to a modern “governance” approach for urban hazards. The novelty of this study lies in its integrated, systemic analytical framework, which examines these challenges not in isolation but as an interconnected “system of issues”.
<strong>Method:</strong> Adopting an interpretivist and qualitative approach, this research utilizes systematic qualitative content analysis of key national documents, including the official national report on the Plasco incident and a parliamentary research center report, as well as relevant specialized academic articles. The analysis involved open coding, categorizing codes into organizing themes, and extracting global themes to construct the final “system of issues” framework.
<strong>Results:</strong> The analysis reveals that the inefficiency of Tehran’s physical hazards management is a systemic dysfunction rooted in five key areas: 1) legal and legislative Issues (e.g., weak deterrence of laws); 2) institutional Issues (e.g., lack of a coordinating body and the income-safety paradox); 3) economic Issues (e.g., absence of financial institutions); 4) socio-technological Issues (e.g., a weak public safety culture); and 5) physical and technical Issues (e.g., environmental degradation). These issues form an intricate network, reinforcing and perpetuating one another.
<strong>Conclusions:</strong> The study's main contribution is its systematic identification of the failures in physical hazards management and their underlying causes. It demonstrates that the traditional, hierarchical, and fragmented “hazards management” approach is no longer adequate for Tehran's current complexities. Moving beyond the vicious cycle of insecurity requires a fundamental paradigm shift to “physical hazards governance,” based on integration, network participation, transparency, and accountability principles.<strong>Objective:</strong> This study aims to diagnose the systemic failures of Tehran's physical hazards management system. Complex metropolises like Tehran face fundamental challenges and structural inefficiencies in managing physical hazards, a reality tragically underscored by incidents like the collapse of the Plasco building. More than isolated events, such catastrophes are symptomatic of a broader systemic breakdown. This research argues for a critical shift from the traditional “management” paradigm to a modern “governance” approach for urban hazards. The novelty of this study lies in its integrated, systemic analytical framework, which examines these challenges not in isolation but as an interconnected “system of issues”.
<strong>Method:</strong> Adopting an interpretivist and qualitative approach, this research utilizes systematic qualitative content analysis of key national documents, including the official national report on the Plasco incident and a parliamentary research center report, as well as relevant specialized academic articles. The analysis involved open coding, categorizing codes into organizing themes, and extracting global themes to construct the final “system of issues” framework.
<strong>Results:</strong> The analysis reveals that the inefficiency of Tehran’s physical hazards management is a systemic dysfunction rooted in five key areas: 1) legal and legislative Issues (e.g., weak deterrence of laws); 2) institutional Issues (e.g., lack of a coordinating body and the income-safety paradox); 3) economic Issues (e.g., absence of financial institutions); 4) socio-technological Issues (e.g., a weak public safety culture); and 5) physical and technical Issues (e.g., environmental degradation). These issues form an intricate network, reinforcing and perpetuating one another.
<strong>Conclusions:</strong> The study's main contribution is its systematic identification of the failures in physical hazards management and their underlying causes. It demonstrates that the traditional, hierarchical, and fragmented “hazards management” approach is no longer adequate for Tehran's current complexities. Moving beyond the vicious cycle of insecurity requires a fundamental paradigm shift to “physical hazards governance,” based on integration, network participation, transparency, and accountability principles.https://jhsci.ut.ac.ir/article_104201_2f57c205fe1a6162b8277825cf0521f5.pdf