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استادیار، گروه مهندسی احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
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دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
10.22059/jhsci.2025.387276.859
چکیده
در این پژوهش عملکرد فرامدل هیبریدی سه‌گانۀ RBF- GA- SAARIMA برای پیش‌بینی فراوانی روزهای همراه با توفان گردوغبار در استان سیستان و بلوچستان در طول دورۀ آماری 50ساله (2020- 1971) بررسی شد. در گام بعدی، نتایج مدل‌سازی با این فرامدل هیبریدی سه‌گانه با استفاده از شاخص‌های نیکویی برازش، با مدل‌های انفرادی SARIMA و RBF و مدل‌های هیبریدی دوگانۀ SARIMA- GA، RBF- GA و RBF- SARIMA مقایسه شد. همۀ مدل‌های بیان‌شده در هر پنج ایستگاه، در ترکیب فصلی چهارم حداکثر دقت و عملکرد خود را نشان دادند. با به‌کارگیری یک و دو فصل قبل به‌جای فصول قدیمی‌تر، کاهش دقت و افزایش خطای نسبی در پیش‌بینی شاخص FDSD در استان سیستان و بلوچستان، به چشم می‌خورد. به‌عبارت دیگر، ترسیب ذرات شن و گردوغبار از فصل‌های پیشین و سپس انتقال آنها با استفاده از اهرمی قدرتمند مانند باد، سبب رخداد این توفان‌ها در فصل‌های آتی می‌شود. از میان مدل‌های بررسی‌شده، فرامدل هیبریدی سه‌گانۀ پیشنهادی با بیشترین دقت و کارایی، بهترین روش به‌منظور پیش‌بینی شاخص فراوانی روزهای همراه با توفان گردوغبار انتخاب شد. مدل هیبریدی دوگانۀ RBF- SARIMA نیز با کمترین مقدار R و بیشترین RMSE، کمترین بازدهی را در پیش‌بینی این شاخص داشت. می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که تلفیق مدل‌های انفرادی لزوماً به‌معنای افزایش دقت در مدل‌سازی متغیرهای اقلیمی نیست
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