Environmental Management Hazards

Environmental Management Hazards

The Necessity of Security During Earthquakes, An Analysis of Post-Earthquake Crime Prevention Strategies (Case Study: Tehran City)

Document Type : Applied Article

Authors
Abolfazl Bali Lashak 1
Arezou Dorostian 2
Mehdi Zare 3
Elham Bostan 4
Aref Bali Lashak 5
1 Department of Geophysics , NT.C., Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Geophysics, NT.C, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Interational Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran
4 Department of Geology, Ka.C., Islamic Azad University, Alborz, Iran
5 Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, MalekAshtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
10.22059/jhsci.2026.417073.946
Abstract
Tehran, Iran’s most densely populated metropolis, is located within the Alpine–Himalayan seismic belt and is exposed to significant earthquake risk. Paleoseismological investigations of active faults in and around Tehran and the southern Central Alborz—including the North Tehran, Taleghan, Mosha, Kahrizak, Robat Karim, Pishva, and young Pardisan faults—have identified several potential seismic gaps. Together with evidence from seismic-intensity data based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale and strong-ground-motion observations, these findings suggest the potential occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes of M ≥ 5, warranting their consideration in seismic-risk prioritization. Accordingly, seismic gaps in the Tehran region may represent potential sources of future significant earthquakes. Beyond their physical consequences, earthquakes may also generate secondary social and security challenges. Evidence from national and international disasters indicates that post-disaster conditions can increase the risk of theft, looting, and other antisocial behaviors, particularly where social and economic vulnerabilities are pronounced. Such conditions may substantially increase demands on police, emergency responders, and urban crisis-management systems. This study adopts a mixed-method approach integrating geological, geophysical, temporal, and social analyses. First, areas characterized by prolonged seismic quiescence were identified within the Tehran region. Subsequently, drawing on social studies and evidence from previous disasters, particularly the Bam earthquake, potential post-earthquake crime scenarios were examined, and preventive strategies were developed with emphasis on urban design, strategic deployment of security resources, and public preparedness and education. The findings indicate that seismic gaps should be considered not only in earthquake-hazard assessment and risk management but also as important spatial inputs for pre-disaster security planning. Integrating seismic hazard, physical vulnerability, and social vulnerability can support the identification of compound-risk areas and contribute to improved post-earthquake resilience and security management in Tehran.
Keywords
Seismic Gap
Post-earthquake mass
Faults of Tehran metropolis
Risk management
Vulnerability
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Environmental Management Hazards
Volume 13, Issue 2
Summer 2026
Pages 147-162