Identification and analysis of the temporal-spatial trend of heat waves in Tehran

Document Type : Applied Article

Authors

1 PhD Student at climatology, Physical Geography Department, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6465, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Physical Geography Department, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6465, Tehran, Iran

3 Full Professor, Physical Geography Department, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6465, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/jhsci.2025.389996.865

Abstract

Heat waves are one of the most important climate hazards today that devastate major cities worldwide. This study aims to explain the frequency, temporal distribution, continuity, and identification of the trend of their occurrence in Tehran, which was extracted using statistical methods and daily maximum temperature data from Tehran synoptic stations for a 30-year statistical period (1994-2023). First, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall method was used to identify the variability and monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of maximum temperatures. Then, percentile indices (95th and 99th) were used to identify its intensity, duration, and frequency. The study results showed that the frequency of short-term heat waves (two and three days) was higher. The highest frequency was related to the 2-day heat wave, which is more frequent at the geophysical station. The share of waves lasting 7 days or more was associated with a lower frequency. The highest frequency of seasonal events is also in autumn. The highest duration of heat waves was at Chitgar stations with 13 consecutive days in summer; Shemiran with 11 days in winter; Geophysics and Mehrabad with 10 and 9 days in autumn, spring and winter. The highest occurrence of heat waves was in Shemiran with 890 and the lowest in Mehrabad with 775 cases. Analysis of the trend indicates an increasing trend of heat wave occurrence in all seasons of the year. Therefore, it can be concluded that the effect of climate change in the region has led to the weakening of temperate latitude systems and the entry of warm masses from southern latitudes into the region. Its importance is in changing the type of precipitation from solid to liquid, reducing snow storage in highlands and destructive changes in plant phenology and the possibility of frost damage with late frosts for horticultural crops.

Keywords

References

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Environmental Management Hazards
Volume 12, Issue 1
April 2025
Pages 65-80

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