Statistical Investigation of Emerging Dusts in Ardabil Plain: Climate Effects and Mitigation strategies

Objective: This study aims to examine the wind and emerging patterns of dust storms in the Ardabil plain over a 19-year period from 2000 to 2018. It focuses on conducting a statistical analysis, pinpointing local hotspots that contribute to the occurrence of these events, and offering practical solutions to mitigate their impacts.
Methods: This study utilized three-hour wind direction and speed data from the Ardabil synoptic station, along with current condition codes (06, 07, 08, 09, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35). In combination with the Dust Column Mass Density (DCMD) index, analysis of variance, and LSD tests, the research aimed to assess the influence of the local hotspot on the occurrence and intensification of dust events.
Findings: The analysis reveals that the annual dominant wind direction in the Ardabil plain is easterly, with a frequency of 12%, and an average wind speed of 3.8 m/s when calm conditions are included, rising to 6.3 m/s when calm periods are excluded. The peak wind speed was recorded in January. Trends in dust events indicate a notable increase in frequency over recent years, with the highest occurrences observed in 2011 and 2013, totaling 25 days. The greatest monthly average, 1.2 days, was recorded in March. Based on the dust storm rose, the annual pattern of dust entry into the Ardabil plain varies by season, originating from the southwest throughout the year, shifting to northeast during the warmer months of June through August, dual directions (southwest and northeast) in September, and remaining southwest for the rest of the year.
Conclusion: The findings highlighted the predominance of storms originating locally, as evidenced by the high frequency of code 07 occurrences (239 cases compared to 61 cases for code 06), elevated DCMD values in Ardabil relative to surrounding areas such as Sarein, Sarab, Mianeh, Meshkinshahr, Nir, and Khalkhal, and statistically significant analyses. The Aghbulaghe-Mustafa-Khan region was identified as the critical local epicenter. This area demonstrated a pivotal influence during the warmer months in particular. Proposed measures include managing the local center, establishing both natural and artificial windbreaks, implementing continuous air quality monitoring, and emphasizing the importance of regional collaboration.