Annual Economic Flood Risk Assessment in the Golestan Province

Document Type : Applied Article

Authors

1 Ph.D Candidate of Geomorphology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3 Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/jhsci.2026.412234.926

Abstract

Objective: Expected Annual Damage (EAD) is a quantitative indicator widely used to assess flood risk and support flood management planning, land-use development, and safety enhancement in at-risk areas. Golestan Province, located in northern Iran, experiences recurrent flood events that result in significant economic losses. The objective of this study is to estimate EAD at the county level across Golestan Province. Method: To achieve this, historical flood data—including recorded economic damages and peak instantaneous discharge—were collected for the period from the 1989–1990 to the 2023–2024 water years. Return periods were estimated and frequency analysis of peak discharges was performed using EasyFit software. EAD values were then calculated by integrating the damage–probability curve for each county. Results: The results indicate that among the counties of Golestan Province, Galikesh County has the highest expected annual flood damage (8,553 million IRR), while Bandar Torkaman County has the lowest (251 million IRR). Conclutions: Further analysis shows that land-use change from forest to agriculture on steep slopes, along with the concentration of urban and rural settlements at sub-basin outlets, are key factors contributing to higher flood damages in Galikesh and Maraveh Tappeh compared to other counties. The findings of this study can support managerial decision-making, prioritization of risk-reduction investments, and the development of effective strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of flooding.

Keywords

References

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Environmental Management Hazards
Volume 12, Issue 4
January 2026
Pages 333-349

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