Preparing a Map of Iran's Predictability of Avian Influenza Using Fuzzy Logic

Document Type : Applied Article


1 Master Degree in Spatial Information Systems, Kerman Advanced Industrial and Advanced Technology University

2 Assistant Professor of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran


AI (Avian Influenza) is one of the most important respiratory, and contagious pathogens in poultry that has fast release power. At present, around 33 pandemics of H5 and H7 over-the-counter influenza have emerged from the 1950s to 2017. The largest pandemic is H5N1 pandemic in 63 countries, and now it turnes to H5N8. Like the H5N8 pandemic in the year 2016, the Severe strain in Guandong, China, resulted in the extinction of about 250 million poultry or wild birds in 63 countries. Most countries, in this context, use deforestation policy in the poultry industry to achieve the eradication of the extra-influenza strains. However, countries also use the vaccination strategy to control the disease. The prevalence of Avian Influenza virus and its transmission to human have been one of the main concerns of researchers in recent years. Identifying the country’s regions that are more vulnerable due to the prevalence of the virus will help control and prevent its prevalence at various stages. This study aimed to identify high-risk regions in Iran for the prevalence of N5H8 virus according to effective factors. This analytical study was conducted in 2016-2017 for IRAN. First, the affective factors were identified, using experts’ opinions, they were weighted, and classified into four categories. Then, the data were analyzed using fuzzy logic. The fuzzy membership functions were defined for each category. Defining 36 various rules, all the existing states were evaluated applying Mamdani's method.  According to the conducted studies, the main factors affecting the prevalence of the mentioned virus included: proximity to rivers, lakes, and marshes, population, poultry farms, villages, rainfall, temperature, and wind. Finally, Tehran, Alborz, Qom, Isfahan, Qazvin, Golestan, and Gilan provinces had the greatest high-risk. The obtained zoning map of hazard had a good corresponding with the samples of report on the Avian Influenza virus.


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