The Vulnerability of Infrastructure of the Southern Regions of Khuzestan Province in Climate Change Conditions

Introduction
The phenomenon of climate change and global warming is an undeniable reality in today's climate. Given that all living beings experience and adapt to their climate in certain climates, or they can live and work in certain climates. Inanimate elements such as utilities, industries, tools, and in general all infrastructures are also affected by the climatic conditions, or they are designed to work in specific climates. As a result, any change in climate can either affect their performance or shorten their useful life. Sometimes it can cause serious and irreparable damage to these facilities or infrastructure. The purpose of this research is to reveal the impact of climate change on the infrastructure of the southern part of Khuzestan province, which contains the most important cities of the province; Ahvaz, Abadan, Khorramshahr, and Mahshahr. It is one of the largest commercial ports of the country and one of the largest petrochemical industries in the country, as well as the largest oil and gas reservoirs in this part of the province. Therefore, the southern part of Khuzestan province is one of the most important strategic areas of the country, and the Middle East. The infrastructure used in this area is also of great economic value. As a result, any changes to any of the climatic elements can affect their efficiency, service life, and quality of operation.
Materials and methods
To study the climate change trend, climate data from this province was first selected for stations with a common statistical base over the 1989–2017 period. According to this criterion, 8 stations were selected from synoptic stations in the southern part of the province. Climatic elements examined during this period were: annual precipitation, mean temperature of the hot and cold season, partial precipitation over 5 mm, dust codes, the occurrence of warm waves above 95 m. Two elements of trend analysis, namely the Sensor Slope Estimator Trend Analysis and the Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis Test, were analyzed for the 29-year time series trend of these elements during the baseline statistical period (1989–2019). Groundwater level changes in the area were also investigated using groundwater discharge data of the Khuzestan Regional Water Company. The climate change period under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the fifth CMIP5 report, was derived using the HadGEM2-ES model (The Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2). Finally, three climate elements, minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation were simulated under the two emission trajectories for the region and climate change of 2070 compared to baseline. AHP algorithm was used to create a pairwise comparison matrix of climatic hazards and the weight of each climatic factor in the extent of damage in south Khuzestan was determined using AHP Calculator online software. After determining the weight of each factor, in ArcGIS software, these weights were applied to the layers of each of the climate factors, and four climatic damage zones were identified and the area of these zones and their hazards were determined.
Discus and Results
The output map in the RASTER Calculator utility, ArcGIS software, shows four climate-risk classes. The high hazard potential area in the northern and central parts of the study area includes Ahvaz, Hoveizeh, Bavi, Ramshir, Hamidiyeh, northern parts of Mahshahr, and Hendijan, as well as Omidiyeh. The high climatic hazard class covers a large part of Khorramshahr, southern areas of Ahvaz, southern areas of Mahshahr, Shadegan, Hendijan, and Abadan. This climate hazard class, after a very high hazard class, can cause the most damage to the infrastructure in the study area. In the highly climatic hazard arena, infrastructure facilities such as communications roads, oil refineries, cities and villages, power lines and water lines are exposed to numerous climatic hazards.
Conclusion
The heat stress due to high temperatures and warm waves in this part of the study area is higher than other parts of the study area. In this region, the role of warm waves, especially during the period of June to August (June to late August), is very high in climate risk. The results of another study (Bruno et al,2020) also show an increase in the number and durability of summer warm waves in Khuzestan province. Extremely high temperatures, especially at temperature records above 50 ° C, cause extensive fires in rangeland and dryland areas. In refinery zones, fire hazards in refineries are caused by extreme temperature stresses that ignite the refinery's volatile gases and affect all infrastructure. This is in line with the results of (Jamalizadeh et al.2020) work on the role of high pressure in high temperatures in Khuzestan province.