Comprehensive analysis of urban resilience in the face of earthquake risk (Case study: Sari city)

Document Type : Applied Article


1 Department of Geography, Chalous Branch, Islamic Azad University, Chalous, Iran

2 Department of Geography, Mahshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mahshahr, Iran


Expanding the urban population to more than two-thirds of the world's population by 2050 on one hand and predicting the growth of natural hazards in the future on the other hand, enforce the need for managers, planners and urban policymakers to pay attention to the issue of greater resilience of communities in the face of natural hazards [12]. Analysis of environmental risk management in Iran indicates the relative failure of harmful effects and their consequences. Accordingly, the present study was conducted with the aim of comprehensive analysis of urban resilience against hazards using factor analysis in Sari.
In this research, using fuzzy Delphi method, according to the opinion of research experts, in three stages, 53 factors extracted from previous studies. Afterward, froming the qualitative process have been confirmed and screened. So, the factors extracted for the exploratory factor analysis process are adjusted. After this step, based on the results obtained from mentioned method, exploratory factor analysis questionnaires have been compiled. After collecting information, exploratory factor analysis questionnaire from 98 experts in the process of urban resilience in Sari city was prepared. These analysis has been explored using the factor analysis approach. The studied variables in order to explain the resilience of Sari city are as follows: the conditions of open spaces, incompatible uses, land (bed), building resistance, access, ownership, density, which are in the presented paradigms of research findings.
Initially, there were 46 factors, which after analysis were classified and screened into 40 sub-indicators in the form of seven indicators. In the meantime, from the point of view of news people, in order to select the appropriate names for the indicators according to the experimental commonalities between them, and to confirm the created model, the process of confirmatory factor analysis (structural equations) using LISREL software has been used. Based on the goodness indicators, the fit of the model related to "urban resilience", all the mentioned indicators are at an acceptable level, and therefore the model has a good fit. Figure 4 shows the standard coefficients for this structure. These include following areas: the degree of resilience of arteries and vital centers, the capacity of vital infrastructure, the distance of relief uses (fire, hospitals and clinics), the degree of cohesion of buildings in neighborhoods, diversity of green and open urban spaces, level of age distribution, level of education, and level of income. These areas do not have a significant relationship because their level of significance was less than 1.96. Therefore, they considered as a free component and removed from the final model.
Urban resilience is one of the most important criteria in the process of urban development and population density in different regions. The higher the level of urban resilience, the more security is guaranteed to live in an urban area. So, policymakers as well as decision-makers in the field of urban management are constantly measuring and monitoring resilience in urban areas, in order to examine the existing weaknesses and strengths to take appropriate measures to correct and improve barriers and problems to increase the level of urban resilience in order to increase capacity at the time of the accident in the urban area. Therefore, it is necessary to correctly identify the factors affecting urban resilience according to the nature and requirements of each urban area. Finaly, a suitable model was created for measuring urban resilience, which measure the level of urban resilience and determine its status, weaknesses and problems, so that the level of urban resilience in the event of natural disasters can be increased.


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