Document Type : Applied Article
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazmi University
Associate Professor, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University
Assistant Professor, Department of Geology, University of Isfahan
PhD Student of Geomorphology, Khwarazmi University
This practical research in karst water areas is evaluating the climate change impact on water resources. In recent years, global warming and rainfall deficiencies have caused an increase in the exploitation of groundwater resources in many parts of the world, including Iran. On the other hand, water resource scarcity and atmospheric precipitation under the influence of climate change are significant in groundwater recharge. Due to the relatively high potential of karst waters and the severe water shortage problem in the country's north-eastern regions, the management of the Kope Dagh basin is essential. Changing the hydrodynamic characteristics is the prominent hydrogeological feature of this type of aquifer. In studying groundwater in limestone formations, springs are imperative and directly reflect the internal characteristics of the aquifer. The karst water resources are renewable and will be very effective in reducing the withdrawal from the alluvial aquifers in the region, and by knowing more about these resources, the issue of groundwater leakage from Iran to Turkmenistan can be prevented to some extent. In the last fifty years, the excessive withdrawal of water by Turkmenistan from the karst water basin of Hezar-Masjed and the lack of a suitable legal regime has created challenges.
The Monte Carlo method is a computational algorithm that uses random sampling to calculate results. Monte Carlo methods are commonly used to simulate physical, mathematical and economic systems. Monte Carlo simulation methods are instrumental in studying systems where there are many variables with two-by-two related degrees of freedom, including fluids. After all, Monte Carlo methods are also helpful for simulating highly uncertain phenomena in their inputs. For this purpose, first, the region's climate and weather observation data were reviewed and evaluated to know the changes made in terms of precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the last fifty years and obtain the amount of water entering the region. The data belonging to Bojnord, Esfrain, Jajerm, Maneh, Samalghan and Neishabur were analyzed to assess the synoptic and rain gauge stations. In order to check the amount of water consumption in Iran and Turkmenistan, water withdrawal data in the form of wells, aqueducts and springs were received from the Ministry of Energy. Using GIS and climate software and according to the available statistics, the necessary data was coded with the Crystal Ball add-on in Excel 2016 and simulated with the Monte Carlo method.nvestigated the amount of water withdrawal from the Hezar-Masjed karst table between Iran and Turkmenistan.
The effect of climate change on karst aquifers of Hezar-Masjid in the Kope Dagh zone
Designing sustainable water management strategies in karst areas
Evaluation of the sensitivity of karst water sources to climate changes and karst landforms
Formulation of optimal model and selection of optimal solutions in connection with karst water management