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گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
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گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
10.22059/jhsci.2026.412234.926
چکیده
برآورد خسارت مورد انتظار سالیانۀ سیلاب (Expected Annual Damage: EAD) یکی از شاخصهای کمّی مؤثر برای سنجش ریسک این مخاطره است که میتواند در برنامهریزی مدیریت سیلاب، توسعۀ سرزمین و ارتقای ایمنی مناطق در معرض خطر استفاده شود. استان گلستان یکی از استانهای شمالی ایران است که بهطور مستمر با مخاطرۀ سیلاب و خسارات اقتصادی ناشی از آن مواجه است. هدف این پژوهش، برآورد میزان EAD به تفکیک شهرستانهای استان گلستان است. بدین منظور، از دادههای تاریخی سیلاب شامل خسارات ثبتشده و دبی حداکثر لحظهای طی دورۀ آماری سال آبی 1370-1369 تا ۱۴۰3-۱۴۰2 استفاده شد. پس از برآورد دورۀ بازگشت و انجام تحلیل فراوانی دبیهای حداکثر لحظهای با استفاده از نرمافزار EasyFit، میزان EAD از طریق انتگرالگیری از منحنی خسارت -احتمال برای هر شهرستان محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که در میان شهرستانهای استان گلستان، شهرستان گالیکش با خسارت مورد انتظار سالیانۀ ۸۵۵۳ میلیون ریال بیشترین و شهرستان بندر ترکمن با ۲۵۱ میلیون ریال کمترین مقدار EAD را به خود اختصاص دادهاند. بررسی عوامل مؤثر نشان داد که تغییر کاربری اراضی جنگلی به کشاورزی در مناطق شیبدار و تمرکز سکونتگاههای شهری و روستایی در خروجی زیرحوضهها از مهمترین عوامل افزایش خسارت در شهرستانهای گالیکش و مراوهتپه نسبت به شهرستانهای دیگر بوده است. یافتههای این پژوهش میتواند در تصمیمگیریهای مدیریتی، اولویتبندی سرمایهگذاریهای کاهش خطر و تدوین راهکارهای اجرایی برای کاهش پیامدهای اقتصادی سیلاب استفاده شود.
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